Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-02

• CHZUSDT formed a bullish recovery after hitting a 24-hour low of 0.03088, closing near 0.03181.
• Momentum indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions with RSI peaking above 60.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with a 3.2% intraday range and sharp volume spikes after 06:00 ET.
• A potential bearish divergence appears in the latter half due to declining price amid strong volume.
• Key resistance appears at 0.0316–0.0318, with support likely at 0.0314–0.0315 based on Fibonacci retracements.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at 0.03118 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03181 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.0320 and a low of 0.03088. The pair traded with a total volume of ~11.4 million CHZ and a notional turnover of ~353,653 USDT over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear two-wave pattern: a morning bearish thrust followed by a strong afternoon rebound. Notable candlestick formations included a bullish engulfing pattern forming around 06:45–07:15 ET, suggesting a short-term reversal. A potential bearish divergence emerged in the final four hours, with price failing to make new highs despite strong volume. Key support levels appear at 0.0314 and 0.03117, while 0.0316–0.0318 offers immediate resistance.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period SMAs intersected in the morning, confirming a short-term bearish crossover before a rapid reversal. The 50-period SMA now sits slightly below the current price, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is below the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bearish bias, though the short-term trend is showing early bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive after 06:00 ET and peaked at 0.000045 by 07:30 ET, showing strong bullish momentum. However, the RSI reached overbought territory (63–67) between 07:30–10:00 ET, suggesting caution. A bearish signal appeared at 15:00 ET as the MACD line crossed below the signal line. The RSI has since dipped to neutral territory, indicating a potential consolidation phase before further directional movement.

Bollinger Bands

The 15-minute Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction before 06:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion post-breakout. Price closed near the upper band at 0.03181, confirming short-term strength. A potential retest of the lower band (~0.0313) may occur if buyers step back in. The daily BB is also showing a slight expansion, reflecting increased uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 06:00 ET, with the largest candle at 07:15–07:30 ET registering ~2.12 million CHZ traded, or ~18% of total volume. This coincided with the strongest price action. Notional turnover peaked at ~10,520 USDT during the same period, suggesting strong conviction in the bullish move. A divergence appears later in the session with volume declining despite a minor price bounce, hinting at weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels based on the 0.0320–0.03088 swing show 0.0314 as the 61.8% level, with 0.0316 as the 38.2% retracement. Price found support near 0.0314 and rallied from there. The 61.8% level appears to be a critical barrier for further downside. On the daily chart, a larger 0.0328–0.0300 swing suggests a potential target for the next leg of the move near 0.0318.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish patterns and strong volume confirmation, a potential backtesting strategy could involve detecting a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart. An exit would occur when the close price reaches or exceeds 0.0316 USDT. This aligns with both the Fibonacci 38.2% level and the RSI overbought zone. For a comprehensive test, a daily candle timeframe would likely offer more stable signals, while shorter intervals may result in higher noise. A position sizing of full capital per signal is assumed, and results could be benchmarked against a buy-and-hold CHZUSDT approach.