Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases to -0.10 in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in June, rising to -0.10 from -0.16 in May, which was revised upward from -0.28. The index measures a broad range of national economic activity and indicates the direction of overall economic activity. The improvement suggests a slight strengthening of the economy, but the index remains in negative territory, indicating a modest contraction in economic activity.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in June, rising to -0.10 from -0.16 in May, which was revised upward from -0.28. This upward revision suggests a slight strengthening of the economy, but the index remains in negative territory, indicating a modest contraction in economic activity [3].

The CFNAI measures a broad range of national economic activity and indicates the direction of overall economic activity. The index is based on 85 economic indicators, including employment, production, and consumer spending. The June data shows that while the economy is still contracting, the pace of contraction has slowed compared to previous months.

The improvement in the CFNAI comes amid a mixed economic outlook. While the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Activity Index decreased from -3 in June to -23 in July, suggesting that economic growth is below trend, the survey also reflected an improved outlook for the U.S. economy for the next 12 months [2]. This suggests that while the economy is currently facing challenges, there is some optimism about future growth.

The CFNAI improvement also coincides with positive economic signals from other regions. For example, India's manufacturing activity strengthened in July, with the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rising to 59.2 from 58.4 in June, marking its highest level in nearly 17.5 years [4]. However, the services sector showed signs of easing, with the services purchasing managers’ index edging down to 59.8 from 60.4 last month.

In conclusion, the improvement in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in June suggests a slight strengthening of the economy, but the index remains in negative territory, indicating a modest contraction in economic activity. The mixed economic outlook and the positive signals from other regions provide some optimism about future growth, but investors should remain cautious and monitor the economic data closely.

References:
[1] https://www.benzinga.com/insights/earnings/25/07/46584196/group-1-automotive-earnings-preview
[2] http://www.fwbusiness.com/news/national/article_c889460f-d366-5f85-8e14-d17bf9d53579.html
[3] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4471410-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-continues-to-improve-in-june-may-print-revised-up
[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-24/india-s-economic-activity-sends-mixed-signals-in-july-pmis-show