The Charles Schwab Soared 2.18%—Is This the Start of a New Bullish Chapter?

Summary
• SCHW surged 2.18% to $97.67, hitting a 52-week high of $98.21
• Turnover spiked to 4.1 million shares, outpacing its 0.24% average
• Sector peers like BlackRock (BLK) dipped 0.09%, signaling mixed momentum

The Charles Schwab’s intraday rally has ignited speculation about its next move. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and a surge in volume, market participants are dissecting technical signals and sector dynamics. The asset management sector, meanwhile, remains in flux as ETF innovation and private credit risks dominate headlines.

Bullish Breakout Amid Sector Volatility
SCHW’s 2.18% gain reflects a confluence of technical and thematic factors. The stock’s price action—marked by a bearish engulfing pattern on the short term and a long-term bullish trend—suggests a potential reversal. This aligns with broader sector news: active ETFs are outpacing passive ones, and private credit risks are under scrutiny. While BlackRock’s decline hints at sector-wide jitters, Schwab’s rally may signal investor confidence in its ETF and wealth management strategies.

Asset Management Sector Splits as Schwab Defies Peers
The asset management sector remains fragmented, with BlackRock (BLK) down 0.09% despite Schwab’s surge. This divergence underscores divergent investor sentiment: while Schwab’s ETF innovation and buyback potential attract buyers, concerns over private credit risks and regulatory pressures weigh on broader peers. Schwab’s ability to outperform highlights its unique positioning in a sector grappling with thematic shifts.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Schwab’s Momentum
• MACD: 1.29 (bearish), Signal Line: 1.57 (bearish), Histogram: -0.28 (bearish divergence)
• RSI: 46.8 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 99.28 (upper), 96.61 (middle), 93.94 (lower)
• 200D MA: 82.39 (far below), 30D MA: 95.08 (near support)

SCHW’s price is testing its 52-week high, with RSI hovering near neutral territory. The 200-day MA remains a distant floor, while the 30D MA offers near-term support. For traders, the key is whether Schwab can hold above $96.60 (middle Bollinger Band) to confirm bullish momentum. Two options stand out:

• SCHW20250822C96
- Type: Call, Strike: $96, Expiry: 2025-08-22
- IV: 21.62% (moderate), Leverage: 42.25%, Delta: 0.70, Theta: -0.29, Gamma: 0.105
- Turnover: 30,197 (high liquidity)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($102.55), payoff = $6.55/share. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet.

• SCHW20250822C97
- Type: Call, Strike: $97, Expiry: 2025-08-22
- IV: 27.82% (high), Leverage: 47.61%, Delta: 0.57, Theta: -0.28, Gamma: 0.092
- Turnover: 8,338 (solid liquidity)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($102.55), payoff = $5.55/share. This contract’s high gamma and moderate delta make it sensitive to price swings, rewarding aggressive bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider SCHW20250822C96 into a bounce above $98.21 (52-week high).

Backtest The Charles Schwab Stock Performance
The 2% intraday surge in the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (SCHW) has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that 54.39% of days yield a return within the first three days after the event, with an average return of 0.27%. Over ten days, the win rate increases to 59.33%, with an average return of 1.03%. In 30 days, the win rate reaches 63.64%, and the average return rises to 3.06%. The maximum return observed following the event is 5.89%, which occurred on day 58 after the initial surge.

Schwab’s Rally: A Tactical Setup for Short-Term Gains
SCHW’s breakout near its 52-week high and strong options liquidity present a tactical opportunity. The stock’s ability to hold above $96.60 (middle Bollinger Band) will validate its bullish momentum. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s 0.09% decline highlights sector fragility. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA ($82.39) as a critical floor and consider the 96/97 call options for leveraged exposure. If Schwab breaks $98.21, the 96-strike call offers a high-reward path. Watch for $98.21 breakout or regulatory reaction.