Chainlink/Yen Market Overview: Volatility, Momentum, and Key Levels

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) surged to a 24-hour high of ¥3,515 before retracing to a low of ¥3,392, closing at ¥3,444.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged between 22:15–22:45 ET as prices advanced nearly ¥120 with high volume.
• Volatility remained elevated, with multiple Bollinger Band retests and price divergence in late-night trading.
• Volume was concentrated during overnight and early morning hours, with reduced activity post-15:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD suggested overbought conditions during the peak rally, raising the risk of a near-term pullback.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at ¥3,417 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of ¥3,515, dropped to a low of ¥3,392, and closed at ¥3,444 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 27,836.5 units, with a notional turnover of ¥98,929,140. The pair displayed a volatile profile with sharp intraday swings.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a series of bullish and bearish reversals, including a strong bullish engulfing pattern from 22:15 to 22:30 ET as LINKJPY rebounded from ¥3,495 to ¥3,514. A notable bearish trend followed at 04:15 ET with a sharp correction to ¥3,428 after an overbought RSI. Key support levels formed around ¥3,440–3,445, while resistance remained at ¥3,490–3,500, where the price frequently tested but failed to break above.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA acted as a dynamic support during the overnight rally, with prices staying above the 50-period MA for much of the session. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is currently at ¥3,432, aligning with recent support levels, while the 200-period MA sits at ¥3,390, suggesting the market may remain in a bullish bias for the next 24 hours if buyers hold above ¥3,440.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above the zero line late at night and held positive for much of the session, confirming bullish momentum. However, the RSI reached overbought levels multiple times, peaking at 72 during the 22:15 ET surge, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish move. A bearish divergence appeared at 04:15 ET as price hit a new high but RSI declined, signaling possible bearish pressure in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained above average, with the Bollinger Band width expanding from 18 to 28 pips as the price surged past ¥3,500. Prices spent a significant portion of the 24-hour session near the upper band, especially between 22:00 and 01:00 ET, before retreating to the mid-band by morning. The recent break below the upper band has increased the likelihood of a pullback toward the lower band at ¥3,430–3,440 in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity was highly concentrated during overnight and early morning hours, with the most active 15-minute window from 22:15–22:45 ET recording over ¥11 million in turnover. The price failed to close above ¥3,500 despite high volume, suggesting a potential lack of follow-through demand. A divergence between rising price and declining volume in the last few hours hints at weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute rally from ¥3,392 to ¥3,515, key levels are at 38.2% (¥3,467), 50% (¥3,454), and 61.8% (¥3,440). Prices currently sit near the 61.8% retracement level, which could serve as a potential support zone. Daily Fibonacci levels from ¥3,390 to ¥3,515 show the 50% level at ¥3,453 and the 61.8% level at ¥3,436—both are likely to see activity in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a backtesting strategy that enters long positions on 15-minute bullish engulfing patterns confirmed by a close above the 20-period moving average and exits on RSI overbought divergence could have captured 70–85% of the rally from ¥3,392 to ¥3,515. The strategy would have faced a moderate risk of false signals during the late-night divergence and could have been improved with a trailing stop at 1.5% below the high. Incorporating volume confirmation to filter out low-volume “false” bullish patterns would increase the signal-to-noise ratio and reduce whipsaw entries.