Chainlink/Yen Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum in a 24-Hour Cycle

Summary
• Price surged to ¥2,489 before consolidating toward ¥2,400.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions before a sell-off emerged.
• Volume spiked in the early session, then declined midday.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at ¥2,360 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of ¥2,489 by late evening before pulling back. The 24-hour period ended at ¥2,402 at 12:00 ET, with a low of ¥2,336. Total volume reached 16,089.6 units, and total turnover amounted to ¥39,267,410.40. The price action suggests a volatile and mixed sentiment, with key patterns emerging on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

The chart displayed a bearish reversal pattern in the early morning hours, with a large bearish engulfing candle at ¥2,479 (19:45–20:00 ET) followed by a sharp pullback. Later, a bullish continuation pattern emerged after a strong rally at ¥2,435 (02:30–02:45 ET). Key support levels formed at ¥2,400–2,405 and ¥2,380–2,385, while resistance held around ¥2,435 and ¥2,450.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish crossover by early morning, aligning with the upward thrust. However, as the session progressed, the 50-period MA began to flatten and dipped below the 20-period MA by midday, signaling weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero in the early hours, confirming bullish momentum, but by midday, it had crossed back below zero, suggesting a bearish reversal. The RSI reached overbought territory at 75+ during the peak rally and then dropped to neutral levels, signaling a potential correction. These oscillators suggest a mixed near-term outlook with high volatility.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the peak rally, with prices pushing above the upper band for a short period before retreating. In the afternoon, the bands constricted, indicating a period of consolidation. Prices remained within the bands for most of the session, suggesting that the move was contained and not indicative of a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early session with a high of ¥313.38 at ¥2,471 (23:15 ET), but declined midday as the price pulled back. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, confirming the bearish reversal. A divergence between volume and price was visible in the late afternoon, where volume increased during a decline in price, suggesting bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major swing from ¥2,336 to ¥2,489 showed key levels at ¥2,442 (38.2%), ¥2,419 (50%), and ¥2,396 (61.8%). The price found support near ¥2,419 and ¥2,400 before consolidating, suggesting these levels are important psychological barriers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and the divergence in volume during the pullback, a potential backtest could involve entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle and exiting at the next close. To simulate this accurately, we’d need confirmation on the exact asset, entry/exit rules, and whether to include stop-loss or take-profit levels. Once confirmed, the strategy could be tested over historical data to assess its robustness.