Chainlink/Tether Market Overview (LINKUSDT)

• Chainlink/Tether declined by 4.8% over 24 hours, closing below key support at $21.75.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $21.92–$21.85, followed by a sharp sell-off into $20.74.
• Volatility spiked during the 02:45–04:30 ET window, with intracandle ranges expanding beyond 8%.
• Relative volume surged after 04:30 ET as price broke key Bollinger Band support and tested 61.8% Fibonacci.
• RSI reached oversold territory (28) at 12:00 ET, suggesting potential short-term rebound but bearish momentum remains intact.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $21.85 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, touched a high of $21.97 and a low of $20.71 before closing at $20.74 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 4,339,088, with a notional turnover of $88,239,900. The pair displayed strong bearish momentum with a significant breakdown from prior support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern just above $21.85–$21.92, a clear signal of short-term bearish bias. This was followed by a deep selloff into the $20.74 area, where a key support level at $20.78 was briefly tested. Notably, a large bearish candle emerged at 02:45 ET (time index 48), confirming a breakdown from the 15-minute Bollinger Band. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $20.78–$20.74 also coincided with this support, reinforcing the significance of the area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are currently aligned in a steep bearish slope, with price staying below both for most of the 24-hour window. On a daily scale, while 50- and 100-day moving averages remain elevated, the 200-day MA has been a long-term support that has now shifted to resistance, with LINKUSDT failing to recover above it.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative early in the 24-hour window, with bearish divergence forming as the price declined. The RSI hit oversold territory at 28 by the close of the period, potentially hinting at a near-term bounce. However, with the momentum indicator failing to cross above 50 and volume showing weak follow-through, the oversold reading may not trigger a significant reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged between 02:45 ET and 04:30 ET, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band and reaching a 15-minute low of $20.71. This marked a significant widening of the bands, indicating a period of heightened selling pressure and distribution. Price has remained below the midline since the breakdown, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly after 04:30 ET as the price broke below key support, with the largest 15-minute candle (index 45) showing a volume of 131,318 and a turnover of $2.77M. This was followed by a high-volume bearish candle at index 48 (02:45 ET) with $2.95M in turnover, confirming the breakdown. However, after 06:00 ET, volume and turnover declined despite continued bearish momentum, indicating possible exhaustion in the selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing from $20.71 to $21.92 showed the 61.8% retracement at $20.78–$20.74, which has held as a critical support zone. Additionally, the 38.2% retracement at $21.28 has acted as a dynamic resistance. The inability to reclaim the 50% level at $21.32 suggests continued bearish sentiment in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this pair could involve identifying bearish engulfing patterns at key resistance levels, followed by a breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band or a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A short entry could be initiated on confirmation of the breakdown, with a stop placed above the 50-period moving average or the nearest swing high. Targets could include the 78.6% retracement level and prior support areas. Given the high volume and turnover observed during the breakdown, this could provide a high-probability setup in a strong bearish market context.