¿Chainlink (LINK) está en el umbral de una corrección alcista o se enfrenta a una corrección más profunda?

Chainlink (LINK) has long been a cornerstone of blockchain infrastructure, but its price trajectory in November 2025 has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts. Is the token poised for a bullish reversal, or does it face a deeper correction? To answer this, we must dissect its technical price patterns and on-chain accumulation dynamics, both of which offer critical clues about its near-term direction.

Technical Patterns: A Tug-of-War Between Bullish and Bearish Forces

Chainlink's price action in November 2025 reveals a complex interplay of bullish and bearish signals. On the one hand, the token has formed a tightening triangle pattern and a potential head and shoulders structure, with key thresholds at $16.20 (resistance) and $10 (neckline support) according to analysis. A breakout above $16.20 could propel LINK toward $17.00–$18.00, while a breakdown below $10 would validate a bearish scenario as reported.

Recent price action has added nuance to this analysis. On November 18, LINK surged 4% to near $14, supported by a 95% spike in trading volume and institutional buying according to CoinDesk. This suggests short-term liquidity inflows, though fading bullish momentum in indicators like the RSI and MACD indicates waning upward pressure as analysis shows. Meanwhile, Fibonacci retracement levels highlight critical junctures: a rebound above the 0.236 level at $14.89 could trigger a short-term rally, while a failure to hold above $10.86-a key downside target-would signal deeper weakness as analysts report.

Analysts remain divided on long-term targets. Optimistic forecasts hinge on a breakout above $18–$20, with some projecting $33 as a ceiling if institutional adoption accelerates as per Brave New Coin. More ambitious models, however, cite $150 as a potential target based on bullish pattern extrapolations and sustained accumulation as noted by Brave New Coin.

On-Chain Accumulation: Whales and Institutions Build Position

While technical indicators paint a mixed picture, on-chain data reveals a compelling narrative of accumulation by large holders. Whale wallets holding 100,000 to 1 million LINK have increased their positions by over 40 million tokens in the past year, signaling confidence in the asset's long-term value according to Phemex. This trend is reinforced by a sharp decline in exchange reserves: since January 2025, Chainlink's liquidity on exchanges has dropped by 34 million tokens, or 18.9%, as investors withdraw holdings from platforms like Binance according to CoinDesk.

The implications are significant. With nearly $188 million in LINK tokens removed from exchanges, the reduced supply available for selling during corrections could act as a buffer against sharp declines as reported by CoinDesk. This aligns with broader trends in blockchain infrastructure, where Chainlink's role in real-world asset (RWA) integration has attracted steady institutional interest as Phemex notes. Analysts note that such accumulation patterns often precede sustained bull runs, as large investors lock in positions ahead of anticipated market shifts according to AmbCrypto.

Balancing the Signals: What's Next for LINK?

The technical and on-chain narratives for Chainlink are not mutually exclusive but complementary. A successful breakout above $16.20-supported by strong volume and whale activity-could catalyze a move toward $18.00 and beyond, particularly if institutional adoption accelerates. Conversely, a breakdown below $10.86 would likely trigger a test of the critical $10 level, with Fibonacci targets suggesting further downside risk as analysts report.

However, the on-chain data introduces a bullish caveat. The reduced exchange liquidity and sustained whale accumulation imply that even if LINK faces short-term corrections, the structural supply dynamics may limit downside potential. This contrasts with traditional bearish scenarios, where increased selling pressure often leads to sharper declines.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Crossroads

Chainlink (LINK) stands at a pivotal juncture in November 2025. Technically, it remains trapped in a range defined by key support and resistance levels, with mixed signals from momentum indicators. Yet on-chain metrics tell a different story: large holders are aggressively accumulating, and exchange liquidity is dwindling, suggesting a structural shift toward long-term positioning.

For investors, the path forward hinges on two critical questions: Will LINK's price action confirm a bullish breakout above $16.20, or will it succumb to bearish pressure below $10? And can the on-chain accumulation dynamics offset short-term volatility? Given the interplay of these factors, a cautious but optimistic stance appears warranted-for now.