¿Está Chainlink (LINK) acercándose a un mínimo de $8 en medio de señales tácticas y de la cadena profundas?

Chainlink (LINK) has long been a cornerstone of the decentralized oracle market, but its price action in late 2025 suggests a critical juncture. After breaking below the $15 support level-a key Fibonacci retracement point-LINK has entered a bearish phase, with technical and on-chain indicators pointing to a potential retest of the $8 floor. This analysis examines the structural breakdown, institutional dynamics, and historical price reactions to assess whether the $8 level will hold or collapse under sustained selling pressure.

Technical Breakdown: A Bearish Cascade

LINK's recent price action has been defined by a series of failed attempts to reclaim key support zones. As of late November 2025, the token traded near $14.28, consolidating below the $15 threshold that had historically acted as a psychological and technical floor according to analysis. Analysts like Ali Martinez and CryptoWZRD have emphasized that a breakdown below $13.50 could accelerate the move toward $10 and $8, with the latter serving as a critical reaction zone.

Technical indicators reinforce this bearish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) show oversold conditions, but these have failed to trigger meaningful rebounds, suggesting exhausted buying momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in a bearish crossover, and the Bull Bear Power metric highlights sustained seller dominance. A breakdown below $13.50 would invalidate the short-term base and expose the $10.94 support level, with $8 as the next target according to market analysis.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation vs. Liquidation

On-chain data reveals a mixed picture. While the Chainlink Reserve has been accumulating tokens-adding 803,388 LINK as of November 2025- its average acquisition cost near $20 means it remains underwater, with unrealized losses of 27%. This strategic accumulation could act as a buffer for the $8 level, but it has not yet translated into price stability.

Order book depth analysis shows concentrated liquidity near $14.50–$15.00, but this zone has repeatedly failed to hold, with volume profiles indicating heavy selling pressure between $18 and $20. Whale activity has also been notable: large holders increased their holdings by over 40 million tokens in the past year, signaling long-term confidence. However, this accumulation has not offset the broader bearish trend, as retail selling and capital rotation into Bitcoin have intensified.

Historical Reactions and Institutional Factors

Historically, the $8 level has served as a significant support zone for LINK. In late 2025, the token tested this level multiple times, with mixed results. For instance, on November 22, 2025, LINK traded at $12.12 before rebounding to $12.17, indicating buyer support near this range. However, repeated failures to hold above $14.03 have eroded confidence, with analysts warning that a close below $12 could trigger a retest of 2025 lows near $12–$13.

Institutional developments, such as the launch of the first U.S. Chainlink-focused ETF (GLNK) and partnerships with Deutsche Börse and UBS, have provided a bullish backdrop. Yet, these factors have not offset the technical breakdown. The ETF's initial inflows of $43 million were positive, but subsequent weakness suggests limited institutional demand. Meanwhile, the Chainlink Reserve's recent purchase of 84,309 LINK tokens-bringing total holdings to 1,139,193-highlights strategic positioning but does not guarantee a floor at $8.

Conclusion: A High-Risk Scenario for Bulls

The confluence of technical breakdowns, on-chain liquidation, and weak institutional demand paints a grim picture for LINK. While the $8 level has historically acted as a support, the current market structure suggests it is more likely to be a retest than a sustainable floor. Bulls must close above $15 to establish a short-term base, but the broader trend remains bearish. Investors should monitor the $13.50–$14.50 range closely, as a breakdown below this zone could accelerate the move toward $8. In a market dominated by bears, patience and caution are warranted.