Chainbase/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• Price opened at 7.024, fell to 6.817, and recovered to 7.177, closing near 7.069 at 12:00 ET.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed after the high of 7.177, followed by a consolidation phase.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions in late hours, but divergence with price suggests caution.
• Volume surged during the breakdown and recovery phases, confirming key price levels.
• Volatility increased significantly, with Bollinger Bands expanding and price touching both bands.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 7.024 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 7.069 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 7.177 and a low of 6.817 over the 24-hour period. The total traded volume was 2,379,203.2 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $16,000,000 (based on average price of ~6.73). The price action displayed a strong bearish reversal pattern followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern after reaching the high of 7.177, signaling potential reversal. This was followed by a consolidation phase between 6.991 and 7.097, where a bullish harami pattern emerged. The support level at 6.817 appears significant, as the price tested it twice, with the second test showing weaker bearish bias. A doji formed near 6.972, indicating indecision and possible reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) crossed below the 50-period SMA, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 100 and 200-period SMAs, suggesting medium-term bullish bias. Price remains below the 200-period SMA, which is a key long-term support level.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, with a weak positive divergence later in the day. RSI peaked at 70+ in late afternoon, suggesting overbought conditions, but failed to confirm a breakout with volume. A bearish divergence appears in the final hours as RSI declines without a matching price drop, indicating weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the price moved from 6.817 to 7.177, with Bollinger Bands widening. The price touched the upper band at 7.177 and the lower band at 6.817, indicating extreme price movement. In the final hours, the price retested the lower band and bounced upward, indicating potential support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown from 7.177 to 6.817 and again during the recovery phase. Turnover increased during the consolidation phase, confirming the 6.991–7.097 range as a key level. The volume profile suggests strong liquidity at key support and resistance levels but shows divergence in the final hours as momentum wanes.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 6.817–7.177 swing, key levels include 38.2% at ~6.996 and 61.8% at ~7.069. The price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a continuation or consolidation. On a daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% levels align with key moving averages and appear to be psychological support/resistance points.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long positions when price crosses above the 20-period SMA on a 15-minute chart, provided RSI is below 30 and volume increases by at least 50% from the prior 5-candle average. Exit criteria include a stop loss at the 50-period SMA and a take profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Based on today’s data, the strategy would have entered a long trade around 6.991–7.097, but the bearish divergence and lack of confirmation on the final candle suggest caution in relying solely on this setup in the near term.