Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview – 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price surged 4.4% in 24 hours, closing near intraday high after a sharp rebound from support.
• High volatility and expanding Bollinger Bands suggest increased directional uncertainty.
• Volume surged 65% in the final 4 hours, with price divergence signaling potential exhaustion.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 4.098 and closed at 4.284 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 4.317 and a low of 4.044 over 24 hours. Total traded volume reached 454,593.2, with a notional turnover of $1.91M.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a sharp rebound off the 4.044 support, followed by a rally above 4.25. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed around 22:45 ET as price surged from 4.177 to 4.223. Price action suggests a short-term bullish bias, with the 4.25–4.317 area forming a key resistance cluster. A 50-period EMA on the 15-min chart now sits at 4.19, while the 20-period is at 4.22, both trending upward.

RSI reached 62 during the rally, indicating moderate momentum but not yet overbought. MACD crossed above zero and remains positive, with a narrowing histogram signaling potential consolidation. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, reflecting heightened volatility. Price is currently near the upper band, suggesting a possible short-term reversal unless buyers maintain control above the 4.25 level.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 4.044 to 4.317 swing show 61.8% at 4.20 and 38.2% at 4.25—price is now above the 38.2% level and may test the 61.8% as support. Volume has surged in the last 4 hours, but price has not broken above the 4.317 high, suggesting caution ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy using Bullish and Bearish Engulfing patterns could have captured the recent rebound, with the 22:45 ET engulfing candle acting as a buy trigger. If applied consistently, the strategy would have bought on the reversal and held until a Bearish Engulfing pattern formed or a stop-loss was reached. However, the strategy’s performance depends on the frequency of such patterns and the ability to manage false signals.