Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview – 2025-11-01

• CTRY opened at 4.488, surged to 4.718, and closed at 4.646, indicating a strong bullish bias in overnight trading.
• Momentum accelerated post-03:00 ET, with RSI surpassing 70 and MACD crossing into positive territory.
• Volatility spiked during the 06:45–08:00 ET window, with volume peaking at 81,696.0, confirming breakouts.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 08:00 ET, followed by a 1.9% price surge.
• Price currently resides above 20- and 50-SMA on the 15-min chart, suggesting continued upward bias.

The Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 4.488 on 2025-11-01 and surged to an intraday high of 4.718 before closing at 4.646 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total trading volume reached 823,072.6, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 3.746 million Turkish Lira. The price action reflects a strong overnight bullish momentum, particularly from 03:00 ET onward.

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained above both the 20- and 50-SMA, indicating a short-term bullish trend. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing at 08:00 ET (4.643 open to 4.702 close) and a hammer at 06:45 ET (4.543 open to 4.607 close). These patterns often suggest a reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. Resistance appears to form at 4.718 and 4.702, with support likely at 4.607 and 4.573.

The MACD turned positive at 03:00 ET and remained in bullish territory, with a divergence not observed during the rally. RSI exceeded 70 at 07:00 ET, signaling overbought conditions. However, the price did not retreat significantly, suggesting strong conviction among buyers. Volatility expanded notably from 06:45 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing the upper band at 4.718 before retreating.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent swing (4.543 to 4.718) indicate key levels at 4.653 (38.2%) and 4.610 (61.8%). Current price sits just below 4.653, suggesting a potential pullback target. Given the combination of strong volume, bullish price action, and momentum divergence, the next 24 hours may see continued strength or a consolidation phase. Traders should monitor 4.607 as critical support; a break could trigger a retest of 4.543.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent bullish patterns, including engulfing and hammer formations, align with potential short-term trade setups. A backtest could be constructed by identifying these candlestick signals in historical data and evaluating the returns from entry at the close of the signal candle with a 1-day holding period. For CTRY, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to today using this approach—combined with volume confirmation (e.g., only entering trades where volume exceeds the 5-day average)—could yield insights into its reliability as a short-term strategy. This aligns with the technical indicators (MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands) used in the analysis, which suggest momentum and volatility are key drivers of CTRY’s movement.