Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) Market Overview – 2025-09-25

• Price fell sharply from 8.95 to 8.144, forming bearish momentum with high volatility.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions during the late-night dip.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price drifted near the lower band.
• Volume surged during the 16:00–19:00 ET window, signaling increased selling pressure.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 8.08–8.15 may act as near-term support.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 8.839 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 8.032 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 8.95 and a low of 7.943. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 1,505,799.9, and total turnover amounted to roughly 12,405,556.5 (CTRY * volume). A bearish consolidation has taken hold, with price drifting into oversold territory and forming long lower wicks.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish breakdown from a previous consolidation between 8.80 and 8.95. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the 17:30–18:00 ET window, confirming the shift in sentiment. A 4-hour doji at 8.144 suggests short-term indecision. Key support levels are forming at 8.10–8.15 and 8.08–8.10, with 7.943 acting as a potential short-term floor.

Support / Resistance Levels

- Support: 8.10–8.15 (medium), 8.08–8.10 (high), 7.943 (short-term floor)
- Resistance: 8.17–8.20 (near-term), 8.26 (medium), 8.36–8.40 (longer-term)

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 8.40, the 100-period at 8.35, and the 200-period at 8.25. The price currently sits well below all three, signaling a strong downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line late in the session, confirming bearish divergence. RSI dipped below 30 around 04:45 ET and held near 25 by the close, indicating oversold conditions. However, given the strength of the downtrend, a rebound may be short-lived unless bullish momentum builds.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early afternoon (16:00–19:00 ET), with price touching the lower band at 8.144. Volatility increased as the bands widened, reflecting heightened uncertainty. The current price of 8.032 is sitting just above the 20-period Bollinger Band low, suggesting potential for a bounce or further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 16:00–19:00 ET window, with the 17:30 candle alone accounting for over 111,219.1 in volume. Turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the bearish move. A divergence appears as volume declined after the price hit 8.144, suggesting exhaustion of the current leg down. However, this may signal a pause rather than a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 8.95–8.144 swing, the 61.8% level is at 8.22, and the 38.2% level is at 8.30. These levels could serve as near-term resistance if a rally emerges. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a prior high to a recent low is at 8.35–8.40, aligning with the 100-period MA.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price breaks above the 20-period moving average and RSI crosses above 30 from below, confirming oversold conditions. Stop-loss placement could be at the nearest support level (8.10–8.15), while targets could align with Fibonacci retracements at 8.22 and 8.30. This strategy would test whether short-term bounces can be capitalized on within the broader downtrend.