CGAU Skyrockets 234% in the Past Year: How to Play the Stock Now?

Centerra Gold Inc. CGAU has gained a whopping 234.4% over the past year compared with the Zacks Mining-Gold industry’s 132.9% increase and the S&P 500’s modest 24% rise.

Among its peers, Royal Gold Inc. RGLD and Galiano Gold Inc. GAU are up 83.1% and 155.2% over the same period, respectively.

Price Performance of CGAU vs. Industry, S&P 500, RGLD and GAU

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Technical indicators show that CGAU has been trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend.

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Let’s look at the CGAU’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.

Higher Throughput and Grades Support Output for CGAU

Centerra Gold reported steady operational performance in the fourth quarter of 2025. The consolidated gold production was 70,853 ounces, reflecting a modest year-over-year decline of about 3%. The company’s production was generated primarily from its two operating mines, Mount Milligan Mine and Öksüt Mine, both of which played distinct roles in shaping quarterly output.

Mount Milligan remained the company’s largest contributor and delivered 44,105 ounces of gold and approximately 13.0 million pounds of copper in the quarter compared with 37,660 ounces of gold and about 12.8 million pounds of copper in the prior-year quarter. This represents a significant improvement in gold output.

The increase at Mount Milligan was primarily driven by higher mill throughput, improved ore grades processed during the quarter and stable plant performance. Continued optimization of open-pit mining activities and consistent ore feed to the processing plant supported the site’s stronger operational performance.

Production at the Öksüt mine totaled 26,748 ounces of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 35,564 ounces in the prior-year quarter. The lower output was largely attributable to the absence of excess gold-in-circuit inventory that had been processed in the prior-year period.

The variability in ore grades stacked on the heap-leach pads, lower gold recovery from leach processing during the quarter and timing differences in ore stacking and leaching cycles also affected the production.

These operational drivers, despite the modest fall in Oksut mine production, enabled the company to sustain production momentum and maintain operational stability. It reinforced the importance of its diversified asset base in supporting both short-term performance and longer-term production resilience.

Strong Liquidity Provides Strategic Flexibility for Centerra

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Centerra Gold demonstrated a robust financial position, driven by strong operational performance and favorable metal prices. The company generated $103 million in cash from operating activities, translating into free cash flow of $7.1 million.

As of Dec. 31, 2025, Centerra Gold held a cash balance of approximately $528.9 million. This was slightly lower than the $624.7 million reported at the end of 2024. The company also had an undrawn credit facility of $400 million.

This brought total available liquidity to nearly $928.9 million. This strong liquidity position provides flexibility to fund operations, support growth projects and pursue potential strategic initiatives without the need for additional debt.

Centerra Gold spent about $91 million on capital expenditures during the fourth quarter. This included $34.1 million in sustaining capital, mainly for construction at the existing tailings storage facility at the Mount Milligan Mine. The spending also covered capitalized stripping and expansion of the heap leach pad at the Öksüt Mine to support ongoing mining and processing operations.

Non-sustaining capital expenditures totaled $61.9 million in the quarter. It was directed toward the expansion and development of the Thompson Creek Mine, which forms part of the company’s long-term growth strategy.

CGAU’s Strategic Projects Support Long-Term Growth

Centerra Gold continued to advance several projects and operational improvements during the fourth quarter as part of its long-term growth strategy. The company has been conducting development work at the Thompson Creek Mine, where activities during the year were directed toward site preparation, equipment mobilization and engineering work required for a planned restart.

The company continued optimization efforts at the Mount Milligan Mine, which remains a cornerstone asset in its portfolio. The company has been advancing mine plan improvements and infrastructure upgrades aimed at extending the operation’s mine life while enhancing processing efficiency and throughput.

The Öksüt Mine continued to operate steadily as a key gold-producing asset within the company’s portfolio. Development activities at the site focused on maintaining heap-leach infrastructure and supporting ongoing mining and processing operations.

Centerra Gold is also progressing studies and exploration programs across its broader asset base, including the Kemess Project, which represents a potential future development opportunity. Exploration and technical work at the site aim to evaluate resource potential and assess long-term development options.

CGAU’s Rising Earnings Estimates Reflect Positive Sentiments

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings for CGAU has been revised higher over the past 60 days.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CGAU’s fiscal 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $1.73 per share, suggesting year-over-year growth of 56%, and for 2027 at $1.98 per share, implying 15% growth.

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CGAU is Trading Below Industry

CGAU is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 10.66X, below the industry average of 12.9X.

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The forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiples for Royal Gold and Galiano Gold are 21.97X and 4.81X, respectively. CGAU currently has a Value Score of B, while RGLD has a score of F and GAU has a score of A.

Final Thoughts: Buy CGAU Now

Centerra Gold delivered stable operational performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by stronger production at the Mount Milligan Mine. Higher mill throughput and improved ore grades lifted gold output at the mine, helping offset the decline in production at the Öksüt Mine. Despite the modest drop in consolidated production, the company maintained operational stability across its asset base.

Centerra Gold is also advancing key growth initiatives. Development work continues at the Thompson Creek Mine as the company prepares for a potential restart, while optimization efforts at the Mount Milligan Mine aim to improve efficiency and extend mine life. Exploration activities at the Kemess Project further support its long-term growth pipeline.

The lower valuation also positions CGAU as an attractive buy for investors seeking exposure to the gold mining sector.

CGAU currently sports a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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