CETUSUSDT Market Overview: Volatility Peaks and Overbought RSI Signal Short-Term Caution

• Price surged from 0.0929 to 0.0963 amid strong volume.
• Key resistance appears at 0.0966, while support is forming near 0.0950.
• RSI shows overbought conditions late in the day, suggesting potential pullback.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, reflecting increased volatility.
• Final 15-minute candle posted a high of 0.0962 with volume of 647,658.9, confirming bullish momentum.

Opening Narrative

Cetus Protocol/Tether USDt (CETUSUSDT) opened at 0.0929 on 2025-09-09 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0963 by 2025-09-10 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0971 and a low of 0.0921. Total 24-hour volume was 14,498,872.1, with notional turnover amounting to $1,366,121.85. The pair displayed sharp bullish momentum late in the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bullish breakout above 0.0940, with a strong continuation pattern emerging after a key higher high at 0.0971. Key resistance levels appear at 0.0966 and 0.0971, while support is forming around 0.0950 and 0.0947. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed after the 0.0962 low, confirming renewed buying interest. A doji at 0.0950 suggests short-term indecision, but it was followed by a strong reversal candle.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100-period MA from above, reinforcing the idea of a sustained bullish trend. The 200-period MA sits well below current price levels, suggesting a broader uptrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26-9 MACD histogram showed a strong bullish divergence in the final hours, with the line crossing above the signal line, indicating acceleration in buying pressure. RSI reached overbought territory near 75 at the end of the session, suggesting a potential near-term pullback or consolidation phase. However, sustained volume activity above key levels could delay any significant correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the final 4 hours of the session, with price staying near the upper band at 0.0966–0.0971, indicating heightened volatility and bullish momentum. A close near the upper band suggests a potential continuation, though a break below the lower band would signal a shift in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 4 hours, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 0.0966–0.0971, where 972,356.1 contracts traded. Turnover also showed a strong positive correlation with price, confirming the strength of the bullish move. No divergence was observed between volume and price, suggesting the rally remains structurally sound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from 0.0950 to 0.0971, the 50% level at 0.0960 and the 61.8% level at 0.0966 are key resistance targets. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing from 0.0921 to 0.0971 is at 0.0952, which appears to be holding as support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described aims to identify short-term continuation patterns on the 15-minute chart when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and RSI is between 55 and 70. The hypothesis is that this setup—combined with a bullish engulfing pattern—can yield a consistent edge over a 15- to 60-minute holding period, particularly when volume exceeds the 5-day average. Given today’s strong volume and MA crossover, a backtest of this strategy would likely confirm its effectiveness in capturing the late-day surge. The strategy could be refined by incorporating a stop-loss at the most recent Fibonacci 38.2% level to manage risk effectively.