Century Aluminum's Q4 2024: Navigating Contradictions in Midwest Premium, Mt. Holly, and Green Smelter Strategies

These are the key contradictions discussed in Century Aluminum's latest 2024Q4 earnings call, specifically including: Midwest Premium expectations and production timeline, Mt. Holly restart timing and investment, and the Hawesville plant strategy:



Strong Financial Performance:
- Century Aluminum reported adjusted EBITDA of $82 million for Q4 2024 and $245 million for the full year, driven by strong realized aluminum prices and low energy prices.
- The growth was primarily due to increased profitability from higher aluminum prices and regional premium levels.

Market Conditions and Demand:
- Global aluminum demand is expected to outpace supply growth, with a market deficit of over 600,000 tonnes in 2025.
- This trend is supported by constrained global supply, including China's production cap and limited new projects outside China.

Alumina Supply and Pricing:
- Alumina prices rose to record highs in late November and early December, with spot API alumina prices around $505 in early 2025.
- The Jamalco acquisition and LME-linked contracts helped Century navigate alumina price volatility.

Section 232 Tariff Impact:
- The U.S. Section 232 tariff announcement led to a significant increase in Midwest Premiums, which reached $0.39 in late February.
- The tariff program is expected to increase Century's profitability, with each $1.00 increase in Midwest Premium equating to an additional $9 million of EBITDA on an annualized basis.