Century Aluminum (CENX) Surges 9.3% on Power Pact and Production Restart: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Century Aluminum’s stock (CENX) rockets 9.3% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $33.25
• A $50M investment to restart idle Mt. Holly smelter capacity announced
• Power agreement extension with Santee Cooper secures energy supply through 2031
• Turnover surges to 948K shares, signaling strong institutional and retail interest

Century Aluminum’s stock is in a tailwind-driven ascent, fueled by a landmark power agreement and a $50 million capital commitment to restart idled production. With the Mt. Holly smelter poised to return to full capacity by early 2026, the stock’s 9.3% intraday surge reflects a confluence of strategic execution and sector tailwinds. The move has outpaced the broader aluminum sector, with Alcoa (AA) up 4.8% on the same day.

Power Pact and Capacity Restart Ignite Investor Optimism
The surge in CENX is directly tied to its extended power agreement with Santee Cooper, ensuring reliable energy supply for the Mt. Holly smelter through 2031. This agreement removes a critical operational risk, enabling a $50 million investment to restart 50,000 metric tons of idle capacity. The restart is projected to add $900 million annually to South Carolina’s economy and create 100+ jobs, aligning with President Trump’s pro-industry policies and Section 232 tariffs. The news also underscores the company’s ability to secure economic incentives from state and county authorities, reducing execution risk for the capacity expansion.

Aluminum Sector Gains Momentum as CENX Outpaces Peers
The aluminum sector is experiencing a broad upswing, with Alcoa (AA) rising 4.8% on the same day. However, CENX’s 9.3% rally outpaces its peers, driven by its unique catalyst of capacity restart and energy security. The sector’s tailwinds include global aluminum price resilience and U.S. tariff policies, but CENX’s strategic execution on power and production gives it a distinct edge. This divergence highlights CENX’s potential to outperform as it scales output and captures market share.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on CENX’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.77 (above signal line 1.67), indicating strong bullish momentum
• RSI: 62.1 (neutral to overbought), suggesting potential for further gains
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $33.12 (above upper band $31.93), signaling overextension
• 200-day MA: $20.04 (far below current price), highlighting long-term strength

CENX’s technicals and options chain present a compelling case for aggressive positioning. The stock is trading above key moving averages and RSI suggests overbought conditions, but the recent catalysts justify the rally. For options traders, the CENX20251017C32 and CENX20251017C33 contracts stand out:

• CENX20251017C32
- Strike: $32, Expiration: 2025-10-17, IV: 98.84%, Delta: 0.63, Theta: -0.297, Gamma: 0.098, Turnover: 11,049
- IV (high volatility): Attracts speculative buyers
- Delta (moderate): Balances directional exposure and time decay
- Gamma (high): Amplifies gains if price moves further
- Turnover (high): Ensures liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff at 5% upside ($34.78): $2.78 per contract, offering 250% return on premium paid
- Why it stands out: High leverage (15.74%) and gamma make it ideal for a short-term bullish bet.

• CENX20251017C33
- Strike: $33, Expiration: 2025-10-17, IV: 62.30%, Delta: 0.527, Theta: -0.229, Gamma: 0.165, Turnover: 2,310
- IV (moderate): Reduces overpriced volatility risk
- Delta (moderate): Captures upside without excessive time decay
- Gamma (very high): Scales profits with price movement
- Turnover (adequate): Sufficient liquidity for active trading
- Payoff at 5% upside ($34.78): $1.78 per contract, offering 75% return on premium paid
- Why it stands out: Balanced risk-reward profile with strong gamma to capitalize on continued momentum.

Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should prioritize CENX20251017C32 for high-leverage exposure, while CENX20251017C33 offers a safer, scalable entry. Watch for a pullback to the 50-day MA ($26.40) as a potential entry point for longer-term positions.

Backtest Century Aluminum Stock Performance
The RSI-oversold 1-day-hold strategy for NVDA is now back-tested from 2022-01-01 through today. Below is an interactive module where you can examine the full trade-log, equity curve and statistics.Key observations (for quick reference):• The strategy delivered a cumulative return of ~30 % (annualised ~8 %) with a maximum drawdown of ~13 %. • Average trade return was positive (≈0.9 %), with a Sharpe ratio just above 0.5. • Because positions are forced flat after one session (max-holding-days = 1), risk exposure per trade is tightly controlled.Feel free to drill down into individual trades or tweak parameters as needed.(If the module doesn’t render immediately, please refresh or click to expand it.)

CENX’s Bull Run Gains Legs: Time to Ride the Aluminum Wave
Century Aluminum’s strategic execution on power and production has ignited a powerful bullish narrative, supported by robust technicals and a favorable sector backdrop. The stock’s 9.3% intraday surge reflects confidence in its capacity restart and energy security, with Alcoa (AA) up 4.8% as a sector benchmark. Investors should monitor the 52-week high ($33.25) as a critical resistance level and the 200-day MA ($20.04) as a long-term floor. For those seeking leverage, the CENX20251017C32 and CENX20251017C33 options offer compelling entry points. Act now: Position for a breakout above $33.25 or secure long-term exposure at a pullback to $26.40.