Central Bank notes stronger-than-expected export performance in Thailand

Thailand’s export performance in 2025 exceeded expectations, with full-year exports growing by 12.9% to 11.4 trillion baht ($339.6 billion), driven by strong demand for electronics and electric appliances according to reports. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported that GDP growth in the second half of 2025 reached 1.3% year-on-year, supported by 9.1% export growth, despite ongoing challenges such as a strong baht, U.S. tariffs, and political uncertainty ahead of February elections as data shows.

While the central bank acknowledged the resilience of key export sectors, it warned of moderation in 2026, with growth projected at 1.5% amid deflation risks and liquidity pressures for small- and medium-sized enterprises according to analysis. The appreciation of the baht has increased costs for exporters, compounding the impact of U.S. tariffs on industries like electronics and machinery as reported. BOT interventions in currency markets and potential gold transaction taxes are being considered to stabilize volatility according to central bank officials.

Analysts highlight uneven growth, with large firms and technology-driven sectors outpacing the broader economy. Tourism recovery is expected to contribute, with visitor numbers projected to reach 35 million in 2026 according to forecasts. However, fiscal uncertainty from the upcoming election and global trade tensions remain risks. The BOT emphasized the need for structural reforms and diversification to strengthen long-term competitiveness as stated.

Market participants anticipate further rate cuts in 2026, with the policy rate at 1.25% following a 125-basis-point reduction since October 2024 according to central bank data. While new Free Trade Agreement (FTA) benefits may offset some pressures, the central bank remains cautious about prolonged global economic shifts and their impact on Thailand’s export-dependent economy as reported.