Cencora Dips 0.70% As Resistance Holds At $293 Amid Bearish Technical Signals

Candlestick Theory
Cencora's recent price action shows a two-day decline totaling 0.70%, closing at $288.79 on 2025-09-22 after testing lows near $285.83. This retreat occurred after repeated rejection at the $293-$294 resistance zone (evident on 2025-09-17 and 2025-09-19), forming a near-term ceiling. Conversely, support materializes around $285, where the 2025-09-18 and 2025-09-22 lows consolidated. A decisive close below $285 could accelerate selling toward the $280-$282 area—a psychological and historical support level from May 2025. The failure to breach $293-$294 despite multiple attempts highlights bearish pressure near current levels.
Moving Average Theory
Cencora's moving averages reveal a bullish structural trend but suggest short-term caution. The 50-day moving average (~290) aligns closely with recent prices, acting as immediate support. The 100-day MA (~285) and 200-day MA (~265) maintain upward slopes, confirming the long-term uptrend. Notably, the 50-day MA remains above both longer-term averages, indicating sustained bullish momentum. However, the price hovering near the 50-day MA after two consecutive declines implies vulnerability; a sustained break below it could signal near-term trend weakness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram turned negative in late September, suggesting growing bearish momentum as the signal line crossed below the MACD line. Meanwhile, KDJ shows a divergence: the %K line recently dipped below 30 (oversold territory) on 2025-09-22, contrasting with MACD's bearish signal. This divergence implies potential short-term exhaustion in selling pressure, possibly foreshadowing a technical rebound. However, MACD’s sustained downtrend cautions against premature bullishness.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contracted notably in late September (band width narrowing), signaling reduced directional conviction. The 2025-09-22 close near $288 places Cencora at the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA), reflecting neutral momentum. Earlier tests of the lower band near $285 (2025-09-15) triggered bounces, reinforcing this level as tactical support. A breakdown below $285 would likely spur band expansion, confirming bearish momentum. Conversely, a rebound toward $293 would test the upper band resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent declines (e.g., 2025-09-15’s 3.68% drop on 2.33M shares) saw elevated volume, confirming distribution. However, the latest two-day pullback occurred on below-average volume (1.09M shares on 2025-09-22), suggesting limited conviction in the selloff. This divergence hints at potential stabilization near support. Notably, breakouts above $300 (2025-08-20) lacked commensurate volume, invalidating upside sustainability, while high-volume sell-offs (e.g., 2025-05-08’s 6.83% drop) signaled institutional exits.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads ~45, retreating from overbought levels (>70) in early September but holding above oversold territory. This neutral positioning offers no immediate directional signal, though the downward RSI slope aligns with recent price weakness. Crucially, no bullish divergence is present; RSI lows correlate with price lows, indicating consistent bearish momentum. A drop below 30 would signal oversold conditions, possibly attracting buyers, but sustained sub-50 RSI may prolong consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025 swing low ($272.70 on 2025-04-10) and high ($303.69 on 2025-08-20) reveals critical retracement zones. The 50% retracement at $288.20 overlaps almost exactly with Cencora’s 2025-09-22 close ($288.79) and the 50-day MA—a major confluence support. Below this, the 61.8% retracement at $284.40 aligns with the August 2025 consolidation floor. Holding $288 could catalyze a rebound toward $293 resistance, while failure risks a slide to $284.40.
Confluence & Divergence Synthesis
A critical confluence exists at $288, combining the 50-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level’s defense will dictate near-term bias. Divergences emerge between indicators: KDJ’s oversold signal conflicts with MACD’s bearish momentum and RSI neutrality. Volume divergence during the current pullback suggests selling exhaustion, but high-volume resistance breaks are absent. Probabilistically, holding $288 could trigger a technical rebound toward $293, while a break below $285 invalidates this thesis, opening risk to $280-$282 support. Long-term trend alignment (rising MAs) favors bulls, but short-term momentum remains tentative.