Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) Market Overview

• Price opened at $0.2349, traded between $0.2280 and $0.2468, and closed near $0.2452, reflecting a volatile 24-hour session.
• Notable bearish divergence emerged in the early session, but bulls regained control after 03:00 ET with a sharp upward reversal.
• Total traded volume reached 3,048,544.1 and notional turnover hit $674,897.4, highlighting strong market participation.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Band widening and MACD crossover signals, indicating building momentum.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.2349 (12:00 ET–1), traded as low as $0.2280, reached a high of $0.2468, and closed at $0.2452 (12:00 ET). The 24-hour total volume was 3,048,544.1, with notional turnover reaching $674,897.4. The price showed a clear V-shaped recovery, driven by a 03:00–08:00 ET rally where volume surged on both bullish and bearish legs, suggesting increased conviction from traders.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels at $0.2280–$0.2295 and rebounded sharply with a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:00 ET before a strong bullish reversal emerged at 03:00 ET. A long-legged doji at $0.2417 suggested indecision, but a subsequent bullish engulfing pattern at $0.2425 confirmed the recovery. Key resistance levels to watch include $0.2449, $0.2468, and $0.2500, while support remains at $0.2412 and $0.2375.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above $0.2400 after 03:30 ET, signaling short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs appear to align near $0.2405, suggesting a possible consolidation before a breakout. The 100-day SMA is slightly below the 50-day, indicating a potential shift in trend strength.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line around 04:00 ET and remained in bullish territory through the close, confirming the upward thrust. RSI reached overbought conditions multiple times in the late session, peaking at 68–70. While this suggests momentum is running high, it also indicates a possible pullback could be imminent if not confirmed by strong volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:00–08:00 ET rally, with price moving outside the upper band multiple times. A contraction in band width occurred prior to the rally, suggesting a breakout scenario. Currently, the price is trading near the upper band, which may either continue as a bullish trend or lead to a reversion if momentum stalls.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 03:00–08:00 ET window, peaking at 216,651.4 at 11:45 ET. This coincided with a strong price rebound and confirmed bullish momentum. However, a divergence is noted in the 15:00–16:00 ET window where price continued to rise with declining volume, suggesting some profit-taking. Notional turnover mirrored the volume spikes, reinforcing the strength of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent bearish swing from $0.2468 to $0.2280 found strong support at the 61.8% level (~$0.2357), followed by a reversal back to $0.2452. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest the next potential retracement is at $0.2525, with the 50% level at $0.2375 serving as a critical near-term support zone. A break above $0.2468 may test the $0.2500–$0.2525 range as a possible extension.

Backtest Hypothesis

In order to backtest a momentum-based strategy using MACD for CELO/USDT, a precise MACD series is required. However, the current dataset lacks the necessary indicator values, likely due to the specific ticker or exchange format used. To proceed, you can:
1. Confirm the exact exchange and ticker symbol (e.g., “BINANCE:CELOUSDT”), which will allow access to the required MACD data.
2. Alternatively, if you can provide a file or public link containing CELO/USDT price or MACD data, I can calculate the MACD values and run the backtest.
3. If neither is feasible, we can pivot to a similar crypto pair with readily available MACD data.

Please share your preference so we can continue with the backtesting strategy.