Is Celestica Overvalued or Justly Priced for AI-Driven Growth?

The AI infrastructure boom has positioned Celestica Inc. (CLS) as a key player in the race to build next-generation data centers. With a market cap of $34.9 billion and a P/E ratio of 39.54x-well above the AI infrastructure industry average of 25.34x-investors are grappling with a critical question: Is Celestica overvalued, or is its premium justified by its strategic alignment with the AI revolution?

Valuation Metrics: A Premium Amidst Industry Averages

Celestica's valuation metrics stand out in the crowded AI infrastructure sector. Its price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.75x exceeds industry norms, reflecting investor optimism about its long-term growth prospects in high-margin segments like cloud computing and AI hardware. Meanwhile, its P/E ratio of 39.54x suggests a willingness to pay a premium for earnings growth, particularly when compared to peers like Arista Networks, which, despite higher profitability, faces stiffer competition in niche markets.

However, these metrics must be contextualized. Celestica's recent financial performance has been robust: Q3 2025 revenue surged 28% year-over-year to $3.19 billion, with adjusted EPS rising 52% to $1.58. Analysts have responded by raising price targets, with JPMorgan, RBC, and Goldman Sachs now projecting shares to reach $388, $400, and $440, respectively. These upward revisions indicate that the market is pricing in not just current performance, but also the company's ability to compound growth in the coming years.

Strategic Positioning: AI-Driven Infrastructure and Execution

Celestica's valuation is underpinned by its aggressive strategic initiatives in AI infrastructure. The company has secured a dominant 41% market share in high-bandwidth Ethernet switches, a critical component for hyperscale data centers. Its Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS) segment, which accounts for 74% of 2025 revenue, is projected to grow by 40% in 2026, driven by AI/ML compute programs and next-generation networking solutions.

Key investments are amplifying this momentum. Celestica has launched the SD6300 ultra-dense storage system, tailored for data-intensive AI applications, and expanded manufacturing capacity in North America to meet surging demand from hyperscalers. R&D spending is set to rise to $120 million in 2025, focusing on AI and high-performance computing. These moves align with a broader industry trend: global AI infrastructure investments are forecast to reach $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2030.

Competitive Advantages and Risk Factors

Celestica's strategic advantages include its deep relationships with hyperscalers, who now represent 77% of CCS revenue in 2025, and its expertise in advanced networking technologies like custom ASIC servers and 1.6T switch OEM contracts. However, risks persist. The company's EBIT and profit margins of 7.9% and 6.2%, while solid, lag behind some peers, and its conservative guidance approach may understate growth potential. Additionally, if Celestica fails to meet ambitious revenue projections-such as its $16 billion 2026 target-its P/E ratio could contract.

Conclusion: A Justified Premium with Caution

Celestica's valuation appears justified by its strategic positioning in the AI infrastructure boom. While its P/E and P/B ratios exceed industry averages, these metrics are supported by strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and a product portfolio tailored to the needs of hyperscalers. The company's ability to capitalize on the $5.2 trillion AI infrastructure market through R&D, manufacturing expansion, and product innovation suggests that its premium pricing reflects long-term potential rather than short-term speculation.

That said, investors should remain cautious. Celestica's success hinges on its ability to maintain execution momentum in a rapidly evolving sector. For those willing to tolerate near-term volatility, the company's alignment with AI-driven growth and its leadership in high-bandwidth networking make it a compelling, albeit high-risk, bet.