Celanese Plummets 13%: Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Demand Warnings?

Summary
• Celanese (CE) trades at $41.32, down 12.86% intraday amid a $36.98 low and $42.99 high.
• Q2 earnings beat estimates, but management warns of weaker demand in key markets.
• Technicals show RSI at 22.74 (oversold), MACD at -2.57, and price near 52W low of $36.29.
• Turnover surges to 10.47 million shares, signaling heightened volatility. The stock’s sharp decline reflects a clash between short-term earnings optimism and long-term demand concerns, with traders now parsing whether the sell-off is a buying opportunity or a deeper bearish shift.

Demand Outlook Overshadows Earnings Optimism
Celanese’s 13% intraday plunge stems from a stark disconnect between its Q2 earnings performance and forward guidance. While the company reported adjusted EPS of $1.44 (beating estimates) and $2.53 billion in revenue (also ahead), it warned of 'weaker demand in most key markets' for H2 2025. This bearish outlook—coupled with a $25 million sequential earnings drag from inventory reductions—triggered a selloff. Investors are now pricing in a $1.10–$1.40 EPS range for Q3, down from $1.90 in Q2, as the stock trades near its 52W low of $36.29.

Chemicals Sector Splits as DOW Rises 4.6%
Bearish Playbook: Options and Technicals for a Volatile CE
• 200-day average: $62.96 (well above current price)
• RSI: 22.74 (oversold)
• MACD: -2.57 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $41.32 near lower band ($44.74)
• Key support/resistance: 30D support at $57.90, 200D support at $56.27

Celanese’s technicals scream oversold conditions, but the bearish fundamentals suggest further downside. For aggressive short-term bearish bets, consider CE20250919P45 and CE20251017P45.

CE20250919P45
• Put Option: $45 strike, expiring 2025-09-19
• IV: 49.97% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 8.42%
• Delta: -0.6618 (deep in-the-money)
• Theta: -0.0078 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.05398 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 74,350
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $45 - $39.25 = $5.75 profit per contract
This put offers strong leverage with high gamma to capitalize on further declines, though its deep delta means limited upside if the stock rallies.

CE20251017P45
• Put Option: $45 strike, expiring 2025-10-17
• IV: 40.59% (lower)
• Leverage Ratio: 8.27%
• Delta: -0.6436 (deep in-the-money)
• Theta: -0.0063 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0516 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 23,303
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $45 - $39.25 = $5.75 profit per contract
This longer-dated put offers similar leverage with more time to capture a potential breakdown below $36.29. Both contracts are ideal for bearish traders expecting a continuation of the 52W low test.

Hook: If $36.29 breaks, CE20250919P45 offers a high-leverage bearish play.

Backtest Celanese Stock Performance
The strategy that holds market positions after an intraday decline of at least 13% shows no return during the backtest period, significantly underperforming the market, which achieved an 84.92% return. The strategy's zero return and high drawdown indicate it may not be effective in capturing market gains following substantial downturns.

CE’s 52W Low Test: Time to Rebalance or Ride the Bear?
Celanese’s 13% intraday drop reflects a critical inflection point between earnings optimism and demand pessimism. With RSI at 22.74 and price near its 52W low, the stock is technically oversold but fundamentally bearish. Traders should monitor the $36.29 level for a potential breakdown and watch the sector leader Dow (DOW), which is up 4.6%—a mixed signal for CE’s recovery. For now, aggressive bearish positions via deep puts like CE20250919P45 are justified, but a rebound above $44.74 (lower Bollinger Band) could trigger a short-covering rally. Action: Short-term bears target $36.29, while bulls await a bounce above $44.74 for a reversal trade.