Q4 de 2025 de CECONOMY: un motor de crecimiento en pleno funcionamiento

CECONOMY's transformation is no longer a promise; it's a financial reality. The company is executing its pivot from a traditional retailer to an omnichannel service platform with tangible results. The core of this shift is a powerful acceleration in its online business, which grew 13.3% to €5.7 billion last year. This surge pushed the online share of total sales to 26.0%, a gain of 240 basis points year-over-year. This isn't just growth; it's a fundamental repositioning of the revenue mix, with digital becoming a dominant channel.

The engine driving this expansion is a suite of high-margin growth businesses. These segments-Services & Solutions, Marketplace, Private Label, and Retail Media-generated 36% of the entire group's gross profit for the year. The momentum here is explosive, particularly in the Marketplace, where gross merchandise value (GMV) surged 90% year-over-year to €527 million. This performance demonstrates that CECONOMY is successfully monetizing its platform, moving beyond simple product sales to capture value from transactions and services.

Progress on the operational front is equally impressive. The company is ahead of schedule on its modernization roadmap, with 75% of the core stores in the portfolio already modernised. This physical transformation supports the digital strategy, creating a seamless omnichannel experience. Simultaneously, the loyalty program is scaling rapidly, expanding to 53 million members. This vast, engaged customer base provides a powerful foundation for personalized marketing and repeat business, turning one-time shoppers into long-term platform users.

CEO Dr. Kai-Ulrich Deissner's framing of the company as an "omnichannel service platform" is validated by these metrics. The strategy is working: sales are growing, profitability is rising, and in key areas, the company has already achieved its mid-term targets. The growth engine is firing on all cylinders, with digital expansion, high-margin services, and a modernized physical footprint converging to redefine the business.

Profitability & Cash Flow: The Quality of Growth

The CEO's pride in "growing sales, rising profitability" is backed by concrete financials that show the quality of CECONOMY's expansion. The reported 5.7% sales growth is not just top-line noise; it is translating into meaningful earnings power. Adjusted EBIT rose 25% to €378 million, with the gross margin expanding 30 basis points to 18.3%. This margin improvement, driven by higher-margin growth businesses, is the hallmark of operational leverage. It means the company is not just selling more but selling more of the right things.

The most striking metric, however, is the surge in free cash flow. It jumped 180% to €337 million, a key indicator of operational efficiency and financial health. This massive improvement is the direct result of the better operating performance, demonstrating that the growth strategy is generating cash, not just expenses. For a retailer, this is a critical guardrail, providing the flexibility to fund further investments or return capital.

The growth is also becoming more geographically diversified. While the DACH region delivered strong profit growth, the Eastern Europe segment saw a remarkable 30.4% sales jump. This regional spread reduces reliance on any single market and shows the strategy is working across different economic environments. The online business, which now accounts for 26% of total sales, also grew 13.3%, further diversifying the revenue base.

The bottom line is that the reported sales growth is indeed building sustainable earnings power. The combination of margin expansion, a massive cash flow increase, and regional diversification points to a company that is not just growing in size but in financial quality. This operational strength is what allows management to confidently guide to an adjusted EBIT of around €500 million for the next year.

Risks & Constraints: The Path to €500M EBIT

The optimistic guidance for an adjusted EBIT of around €500 m in FY2025/26 represents a significant step-up, requiring a 30% increase from the €378 million achieved in the current year. This ambitious target is not a given; it is a forecast that depends on flawless execution across all business segments and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop. The CEO's explicit statement that the outlook is based on a stable macroeconomic environment, especially in the DACH segment frames the central vulnerability. Any deterioration in consumer spending or a rise in economic uncertainty could quickly derail the plan.

The path to €500 million is heavily weighted toward the company's core markets. The DACH region, particularly Germany, is a key profit driver, and the guidance's success hinges on its continued strength. The company's own financials show this concentration: in FY2024/25, the DACH segment generated adjusted EBIT of €193 million. Sustaining and accelerating growth there, while also driving contributions from Western/Southern Europe and Eastern Europe, will be a complex operational challenge. A slowdown in any major market could create a gap that is difficult to close elsewhere.

Even the company's most celebrated metric-the record Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 61-is a double-edged sword. This high customer satisfaction is a powerful asset, but maintaining it requires continuous investment in service quality and technology. The strategy of building an omnichannel service platform and modernizing stores is capital-intensive. If the pressure to hit the €500 million EBIT target leads to cost-cutting that erodes the customer experience, the very foundation of the growth narrative could be compromised. The risk is a self-fulfilling prophecy where short-term margin pressure undermines long-term loyalty and sales growth.

In practice, the company is walking a tightrope. It must execute its growth strategy to expand the top line, manage costs to protect margins, and invest in the customer experience to sustain it-all within a macroeconomic environment it cannot control. The guidance assumes all these elements align perfectly. The bottom line is that the path to €500 million is narrow and exposed. It demands not just operational excellence but also a degree of economic luck that is never guaranteed.

Valuation & Catalysts: Pricing the Transformation

The investment case hinges on a simple question: is the market pricing in a transformation or just a cyclical rebound? The CEO's statement that the company has already achieved our mid-term targets today in several key areas is a powerful framing device. It suggests the fundamental progress is already baked into the business, potentially reducing the "execution risk" discount that has historically plagued the stock. The evidence supports this. The company has hit its online share target, with Retail Core Online share climbing to 26% and on track for 30%. Loyalty membership has surged to 53 million, and the modernisation rate of its physical footprint is now over 90%. This operational maturity provides a tangible foundation for the next phase of growth.

The near-term catalysts for a valuation re-rating are now visible and specific. The company is not waiting for a distant future; it is actively expanding its footprint and service offerings. The rollout of new store formats like Xpress and Smart is underway, with 29 new Xpress stores and 8 new Smart stores opened in 2024/25. More importantly, the expansion into new markets is scheduled for 2026, with further expansion into Hungary and Switzerland in 2026. This provides clear, multi-year visibility into growth, moving beyond the vague promise of "digital transformation" to concrete geographic and format expansion.

The primary catalyst for a significant re-rating, however, will be consistent execution against the €500 million EBIT target. The guidance for adjusted EBIT of around €500 m in the next fiscal year is the critical benchmark. The market will be watching to see if the company can convert its operational momentum-evidenced by the 24% increase in adjusted EBIT to €378 million this year-into a durable, scalable profit engine. The growth businesses are already demonstrating their power, with Marketplace GMV up by +90% and Retail Media with income growth of +90%. The question is whether this growth can be sustained and leveraged to hit the €500 million EBIT target without sacrificing margins.

In practice, the valuation is caught between two narratives. On one side is the story of a mature, profitable retailer with a clear path to incremental growth through expansion and service sales. On the other is the story of a company that has already achieved its near-term operational goals and must now prove it can build a new, higher-margin growth engine. The current price action will likely remain range-bound until the market gets clearer signals on execution against that €500 million target. For now, the transformation is real, but the market is waiting for the proof.