¿Están justificadas las actuales cotizaciones de mercado de Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) después de un alza de 199% en cinco años?

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) has delivered a staggering 199% total return over the past five years, outpacing most peers in the financial exchanges sector. Yet, as the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.6–5.8 and a forward P/E of 27.51, investors must ask: Is this premium valuation justified by fundamentals, or does it reflect overconfidence in a company now facing structural headwinds?

Recent Financial Performance: A Tale of Growth and Strategic Realignment

Cboe Australia and Canada and exiting U.S. and European corporate listings-signals a shift toward core businesses. While these moves aim to reduce annual operating expenses by 8–10%, they also reflect a recognition that non-core segments are no longer viable contributors.

Valuation Metrics: A P/E Discount, a P/B Premium

CBOE's current P/E ratio of 26–27 is below its 5-year average of 31.09 and significantly lower than the 34.11 industry average for financial exchanges, which is 34.11. This suggests the stock is attractively priced relative to earnings. However, the P/B ratio of 5.6–5.8 starkly contrasts with the sector's 0.98 average, indicating the market values CBOE's intangible assets (e.g., market data, derivatives platforms) far above its tangible book value.

This divergence highlights a key tension: While CBOE's earnings growth and margin expansion justify a premium to peers, its P/B ratio implies investors are paying for future growth at a steep multiple. For context, regional banks trade at P/B ratios of 1.13, and the broader financial sector averages 1.0. CBOE's 5.6x P/B suggests a belief that its earnings power will continue to outpace traditional financial institutions-a bet that hinges on execution.

Forward-Looking Analysis: Earnings Growth vs. Revenue Decline

Analysts project CBOE's earnings per share (EPS) to grow at 6.1–7.4% annually through 2026–2028, supported by margin expansion and cost discipline. Adjusted operating EBITDA is forecasted to rise 11.17% annually, reflecting the company's focus on high-margin data and derivatives businesses.

Yet, revenue is expected to contract at 12.2% annually, a red flag for long-term sustainability. This disconnect between earnings and revenue growth stems from CBOE's strategic divestitures and the maturation of its core markets. While cost cuts can offset declining revenue in the short term, they cannot indefinitely mask structural challenges.

Risk/Reward Dynamics: Justifying the Premium

CBOE's valuation premium is most defensible if its earnings growth outpaces revenue declines-a scenario achievable through margin expansion and strategic focus. The company's 19.54% projected return on equity and strong cash flow generation (adjusted EBITDA of $409 million in Q3 2025) support this case. However, risks abound:

1. Market Volatility: Derivatives markets, which drive 63% of CBOE's revenue, are cyclical. A prolonged downturn could erode volume-based income.
2. Execution Risk: The success of divestitures and cost cuts hinges on smooth transitions. Delays or integration costs could pressure margins.
3. Sector Valuation Shifts: If financial exchanges face broader discounting (e.g., due to macroeconomic stress), CBOE's premium P/B could contract.

Conclusion: A Premium with Caveats

CBOE's valuation reflects a market that values its earnings resilience and strategic clarity. The P/E discount to historical and sector averages offers a margin of safety, while the P/B premium is justified only if the company sustains its margin expansion and executes its realignment. However, the projected revenue decline and reliance on cost discipline introduce asymmetry: A misstep in execution could disproportionately impact the stock.

For investors, the key question is whether CBOE's operational discipline and market leadership in derivatives and data can offset structural headwinds. If the company can maintain its EBITDA growth trajectory while navigating the transition, the current premium may prove warranted. But for those seeking downside protection, the valuation leaves little room for error.