CAVA Group's Stock Performance: Understanding Value After 46% Slide and New Store Expansion in 2025

CAVA Group's stock has dropped 46% year-to-date and 53.5% over the past year. Valuation checks indicate a value score of 0 out of 6, suggesting the company is not undervalued. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a fair value of $31.67 per share, but the stock trades at a 96.2% premium to its intrinsic value.

CAVA Group, a fast-casual dining chain known for its Mediterranean-inspired cuisine, has seen significant fluctuations in its stock performance recently. As of September 12, 2025, the company's stock has dropped by 46.04% year-to-date and 53.5% over the past year. Despite these declines, analysts have been upgrading the stock, highlighting its expansion potential and improving financials CAVA Group (CAVA): Analyst Upgrades Bring Fresh Focus to Valuation and Long-Term Growth Prospects^[1].

CAVA Group's share price has been trading well below analyst price targets, with a year-to-date return of -46.04% and a one-year total shareholder return of -53.5%. However, recent analyst upgrades and the company's expansion into new markets like Miami, along with initiatives such as the revamped loyalty program, have sparked interest among investors. This suggests that investor sentiment could be turning more constructive as growth stories gain traction and revenue expectations rise CAVA Group (CAVA): Analyst Upgrades Bring Fresh Focus to Valuation and Long-Term Growth Prospects^[1].

Valuation checks indicate that CAVA Group is not undervalued, with a value score of 0 out of 6. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a fair value of $31.67 per share, but the stock trades at a 96.2% premium to its intrinsic value. This premium raises questions about the stock's potential risk or reward if growth expectations do not materialize CAVA Group (CAVA): Analyst Upgrades Bring Fresh Focus to Valuation and Long-Term Growth Prospects^[1].

While analysts believe CAVA Group's path to national scale could unlock extraordinary value, ongoing macroeconomic pressures and the risk of market saturation from aggressive expansion present challenges to the company's ambitious long-term growth narrative. Comparing CAVA's valuation against similar companies reveals that the stock is richly priced relative to its peers, trading at 51.2 times earnings, which is much higher than the industry average of 23.1 times and a fair ratio of 22.2 times CAVA Group (CAVA): Analyst Upgrades Bring Fresh Focus to Valuation and Long-Term Growth Prospects^[1].

Investors should consider these factors when evaluating CAVA Group's stock. The company's recent analyst upgrades and expansion plans suggest potential growth, but the stock's high valuation relative to its peers and the risk of market saturation warrant caution. It is essential to conduct thorough research and consider multiple perspectives when making investment decisions.