U.S. Cattle Inventory: A Glimpse into the Future of Beef Production and Prices

The U.S. cattle industry has been eagerly awaiting the release of the January Cattle Inventory report by the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The report, published on January 31, 2025, provided much-needed insight into the state of the cattle industry in the United States. The report revealed that all cattle and calves in the United States on January 1, 2025, totaled 86.7 million head, down about 1% from 87.2 million in 2024. This decrease, while smaller than last year, indicates continued contraction in the U.S. cattle herd.

Beef cows that have calved totaled 27.9 million, down 1% from 2024 and a new record low since 1965. Heifers for beef cow replacement were 4.67 million, down 1% from 2024. Heifers for beef cow replacement expected to calve were 2.92 million, down about 2%. Lower numbers for both beef cows that have calved and beef cows expected to calve provide additional evidence of continued herd contraction.

The cattle cycle, which reflects the waves of expansion and contraction of the total number of U.S. beef cattle in consecutive years, is currently in its 12th year of the contraction phase. Analysts and stakeholders have been waiting for indicators of the beginning of the expansion phase. The 2024 calf crop was estimated at 33.5 million calves, unchanged from 2023. Ranchers' decisions on whether to place this calf crop on feed or hold back greater numbers for future breeding will dictate whether the U.S. cattle herd turns toward expansion or continues contraction.

Prices for fed steers have already set records in 2025, making placing cattle on feed, including the calves from 2024, a profitable decision. However, calf prices are also strong, presenting an opportunity for cow-calf producers to retain or sell calves for breeding. This would remove more cattle from the beef market and tighten supplies further before possible expansion with the 2026 generation of calves. Tariff-induced trade wars are sowing uncertainty for both ranchers and consumers alike, which could impact demand for beef and have a significant impact on prices.

This report was neutral-to-slightly positive, as the overall rate of contraction of the cattle inventory has slowed. However, factors such as demand, beef prices, and trade will influence producers' decisions about what to do with their animals. Cash prices for fed steers have recently hit record highs, which could create obstacles for buyers and become a barrier for farmers wanting to expand. The cattle industry may continue to contract if farmers continue marketing a higher percentage of females for beef rather than breeding.

In conclusion, the U.S. cattle inventory report provides valuable insights into the future trajectory of the U.S. cattle herd and beef prices. The decisions of ranchers regarding the 2024 calf crop will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the beef market. As the cattle cycle continues, producers and investors alike must stay informed about the latest developments in the cattle industry to make informed decisions about their investments.