La revolución de la inteligencia artificial de Caterpillar se despliega mientras las acciones de la empresa caen un 2.58%… ¿Qué está causando esta caída en los precios de las acciones?

Summary
• Caterpillar (CAT) plunges 4.28% to $596.44, erasing $26.65 from its opening price
• NVIDIA collaboration and AI announcements fail to offset intraday selloff
• Options chain shows aggressive bearish positioning with 63.57% leverage ratio on 610C strike

Caterpillar’s stock is in freefall as investors grapple with the mixed impact of its AI-driven industrial revolution. Despite unveiling the Cat AI Assistant and a $25M workforce pledge, the stock has dropped to $596.44—its lowest since early December. With a 52-week high of $627.50 now in jeopardy, the market is dissecting whether the AI hype can justify the valuation. Technical indicators and options data suggest a critical juncture for the construction giant.

AI Hype Meets Reality Check
Caterpillar’s AI-powered announcements at CES 2026—including the Cat AI Assistant and NVIDIA collaboration—were intended to position the company as a leader in industrial automation. However, the market’s reaction has been tepid. While the partnership with NVIDIA promises to integrate AI into construction machinery, investors are skeptical about the immediate financial impact. The stock’s sharp decline suggests that the market is discounting the long-term potential of these innovations in favor of near-term execution risks. Additionally, the $25M workforce investment, while laudable, may be perceived as a cost burden rather than a revenue driver. The disconnect between strategic vision and short-term profitability is fueling the selloff.

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Sector Under Pressure
The broader sector is struggling as Deere (DE) also declines 2.36%, reflecting broader concerns about demand in the construction and agricultural equipment markets. Caterpillar’s 4.28% drop outpaces its peers, indicating that the market is punishing CAT for its ambitious AI bets. While the sector faces macroeconomic headwinds, Caterpillar’s pivot to AI and autonomy is seen as a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Investors are weighing whether the company can maintain its market leadership in a sector where traditional metrics like EBITDA and free cash flow remain king.

Bearish Options and ETFs in Focus as Volatility Rises
• 200-day average: 438.78 (well below current price)
• RSI: 65.03 (neutral but trending lower)
• MACD: 8.32 (bullish but weakening)
• Bollinger Bands: 554.31–626.73 (price near lower band)

Caterpillar’s technicals suggest a bearish bias in the short term. The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average and is testing the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential for further downside. The RSI, while not overbought, is trending downward, and the MACD histogram is shrinking, signaling waning momentum. Aggressive traders may consider short-term bearish options given the high implied volatility and liquidity in the options chain.

Top Option 1: CAT20260116C610
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $610
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 31.28% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 78.60% (high)
• Delta: 0.3680 (moderate)
• Theta: -1.2635 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.012168 (sensitive to price moves)
• Turnover: 576,594 (liquid)

This call option offers high leverage and is positioned just below the 52-week high. If the stock breaks below $610, the option could see rapid decay, making it a high-risk, high-reward play for bearish traders.

Top Option 2: CAT20260116C615
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $615
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 31.16% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 100.19% (very high)
• Delta: 0.3097 (moderate)
• Theta: -1.1179 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.011428 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 31,328 (liquid)

This option is even more leveraged than the 610C strike, making it ideal for aggressive bearish bets. The high leverage ratio amplifies potential gains if the stock continues to decline, but it also increases risk due to the high theta decay.

Payoff Estimation: Assuming a 5% downside to $566.62, the 610C call would expire worthless, while the 615C call would also expire worthless. However, given the high leverage, these options could see significant intraday gains if the stock gaps down before expiration.

Backtest Caterpillar Stock Performance
The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (CAT) has demonstrated a positive performance following a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 51.74%, the 10-day win rate is 54.78%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.35%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 7.64%, which occurred on day 59.

Short-Term Bearish Bias: Watch for $582 Support Breakdown
Caterpillar’s AI-driven transformation is a long-term story, but the stock’s immediate future hinges on its ability to stabilize above key support levels. The 30-day support range of $582.01–$583.51 is now in focus; a breakdown below this could trigger a test of the 200-day moving average at $438.78. Investors should monitor the 610C and 615C call options for signs of aggressive shorting. Meanwhile, Deere’s 2.36% decline underscores sector-wide weakness, suggesting that Caterpillar’s AI ambitions may not be enough to outperform in a challenging macro environment. For now, the message is clear: short-term bears dominate, and $582 is the critical line in the sand.