Reservas de efectivo como una defensa estratégica: Gestión de riesgos de Bitcoin en un mercado bajista

The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), has long been characterized by its volatility. As the sector matures, institutional players and governments are increasingly adopting structured risk management frameworks to navigate downturns. In 2025, the strategic allocation of cash reserves has emerged as a critical tool for mitigating downside risks while preserving long-term value. This analysis explores how cash reserves are being leveraged as both a defensive mechanism and a strategic asset, drawing on recent developments in policy, corporate strategy, and market behavior.

The U.S. Government's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A New Paradigm

In March 2025, the U.S. government established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, centralizing over 207,000 BTC in national reserves. This move underscores Bitcoin's growing recognition as a reserve asset, akin to gold or foreign currencies. By institutionalizing Bitcoin holdings, the government aims to stabilize its digital asset portfolio during market fluctuations while signaling broader confidence in the technology. This initiative also aligns with efforts to position the U.S. as a global leader in digital finance, encouraging institutional adoption through regulatory clarity.

Institutional Caution: The Case of MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy (MSTR), under the leadership of Michael Saylor, has long been a vocal advocate for Bitcoin accumulation. However, in 2025, the company shifted its focus to liquidity preservation, establishing a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to cover dividend payments and debt obligations. This pivot reflects a pragmatic response to the bearish market environment. By maintaining a robust cash buffer, MSTR reduces the risk of forced Bitcoin sales during price declines, a strategy endorsed by CryptoQuant as a dual-reserve model that balances flexibility with financial resilience.

The company's Bitcoin purchasing activity has plummeted, from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with only 135 BTC acquired in December according to The Block. This decline highlights the importance of liquidity management in bear markets, where cash reserves act as a safety net against prolonged downturns.

Market Indicators and Sentiment: A Mixed Picture

While institutional caution is evident, market indicators suggest a nuanced landscape. According to The Block, Bitcoin exchange reserves have hit multi-year lows, signaling a shift toward long-term holding behavior. This trend historically correlates with bullish sentiment, as investors move assets to private wallets rather than trading on exchanges. However, CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno warns that if the bear market persists, Bitcoin could trade between $70,000 and $55,000 in 2026, with the lower end representing a "most bearish scenario."

Conversely, veteran strategist Peter Tchir argues that the bear market may have already bottomed out, citing regulatory clarity and institutional adoption as catalysts for recovery. The U.S. government's recent regulatory reforms, including the proposed repeal of SAB 121 and the introduction of SAB 122, have simplified digital asset accounting, enabling banks to offer custody services. These changes are expected to attract institutional capital, potentially reversing bearish trends.