Is Casey's General Stores (CASY) Outperforming Its Retail-Wholesale Peers and What Does This Mean for Investors?

Casey's General Stores (CASY) has emerged as a standout performer in the retail-wholesale sector in 2025, with its shares surging 43.1% year-to-date compared to the sector's modest 7.2% gain. This outperformance raises critical questions for investors: Is CASY's success sustainable, and what does it signal about the company's competitive positioning relative to peers like Penske Automotive (PAG), Carvana (CVNA), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS)? A closer look at earnings estimate revisions, operational strategies, and sector dynamics reveals a compelling case for CASY's resilience-and potential risks for investors.

Earnings Estimate Revisions: A Barometer of Confidence

CASY's earnings trajectory has been bolstered by upward revisions to its full-year estimates. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY's earnings increased by 3.1% over the past three months, reflecting investor optimism. This trend was validated in its December 9, 2025, earnings report, where the company delivered EPS of $5.53-surpassing the $4.92 consensus-though revenue fell slightly short by 1.03%. Forward-looking projections are equally robust, with expected EPS of $16.69 for fiscal 2025 and $18.32 for 2026 according to analysts.

By contrast, peers like Penske Automotive (PAG) and Lithia Motors (LAD) have shown mixed results. PAG reported a 5% decline in Q3 2025 EPS to $3.23 despite a 1.4% revenue increase, while LAD and GPI missed estimates by 1.79% in the same period. These divergent outcomes highlight CASY's ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds-such as high auto loan rates and slowing EV adoption-better than its rivals according to Zacks analysts.

DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS), a non-auto retail peer, offers a contrasting success story. The company exceeded Q3 2025 estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $2.78 (versus $2.62 expected) and raised full-year guidance to $14.25–$14.55 per share. While DKS's performance underscores strength in discretionary retail, CASY's vertically integrated model-featuring three owned distribution centers and a 400-tractor fleet-provides a unique edge in cost efficiency and supply chain agility.

Sector Dynamics and Strategic Differentiation

CASY's dominance in smaller towns with populations under 20,000 is a key differentiator. With 8.98% of the automotive aftermarket and 36.30% of the broader retail sector market share, the company leverages its ownership of real estate and distribution infrastructure to reduce costs and accelerate expansion. This contrasts sharply with competitors like 7-Eleven and Circle K, which rely on third-party logistics according to industry analysis.

However, the broader auto retail sector faces structural challenges. Zacks analysts note that decelerating vehicle sales growth and high loan rates are likely to dampen earnings growth for companies like PAG, LAD, and GPI. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart de Mexico saw a 2.2% upward revision in earnings estimates, but its $1.63 per share forecast for 2025 remains flat compared to 2024 according to financial reports. These trends suggest that CASY's vertically integrated model and rural focus insulate it from some of the sector's broader pressures.

Implications for Investors

For investors, CASY's outperformance signals a combination of operational discipline and strategic foresight. The company's ability to exceed earnings expectations while peers struggle with margin compression or revenue shortfalls underscores its competitive moat. However, risks remain. CASY's recent revenue miss-though minor-hints at potential challenges in scaling its model, particularly as it expands beyond its 500-mile distribution radius.

Moreover, while DKS's guidance raises and PAG's revenue growth demonstrate sector-wide resilience, CASY's reliance on rural markets could expose it to regional economic shifts. Investors should monitor CASY's ability to maintain its 43.1% year-to-date return against peers like Carvana (CVNA), which has surged 113.2% in 2025, albeit with less predictable earnings trends.

Conclusion

Casey's General Stores has clearly outpaced its retail-wholesale peers in 2025, driven by strong earnings revisions, a vertically integrated supply chain, and a strategic focus on underserved markets. While sector-wide challenges persist, CASY's operational model positions it to weather macroeconomic volatility better than many competitors. For investors, this suggests a compelling long-term opportunity-but one that warrants close attention to execution risks and evolving sector dynamics.