El caso de los metales preciosos en un entorno de mercado mundial volátil

In an era marked by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and divergent central bank policies, investors are increasingly turning to precious metals as a defensive strategy. Gold and silver have surged to record highs in 2023–2025, outperforming equities and currencies amid a fragile global economic landscape. This article examines the macroeconomic tailwinds fueling demand for these assets and evaluates their strategic value in diversified portfolios.

Outperformance Amid Volatility

Gold and silver have demonstrated exceptional resilience in volatile markets. By October 2025, gold prices reached $4,379.96 per ounce, an 85% increase since December 2019, while silver hit $54.3775 per ounce, a 95% year-to-date gain. This outperformance contrasts with equities, where the S&P 500 closed at 6,721.43 in December 2025, reflecting a 16.45% YTD return but with significant volatility. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which had consolidated near 99.50 by late 2025, also weakened, further boosting demand for dollar-denominated precious metals.

The correlation between equities and gold remains moderate-0.76 for the S&P 500 over the trailing 12 months as of December 2025 according to market analysis. While equities offer long-term growth potential, their performance is increasingly tied to speculative sectors like AI and clean energy, which face valuation risks. Precious metals, by contrast, provide inflation protection and act as a hedge against currency devaluation, making them critical in uncertain times.

Central Bank Policies and Geopolitical Tailwinds

Central banks have played a pivotal role in driving demand for gold. Annual gold purchases between 2023 and 2025 exceeded 1,000 tonnes, a sharp rise from the 400–500 tonnes average over the previous decade. Emerging markets, including China, India, and Poland, have led this trend, using gold to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. By Q3 2025, institutional gold buying reached 220 tonnes, contributing to a 40% year-over-year increase in average prices.

This surge in official demand has acted as a price backstop, with gold hitting $4,381 per ounce in October 2025. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts gold prices to reach $4,000 by mid-2026, citing continued central bank accumulation and easing U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have amplified safe-haven demand.

Silver's performance has been equally striking, driven by industrial demand in clean energy and tight liquidity. Prices surpassed $59.90 per ounce in late 2025, fueled by solar panel production and electric vehicle manufacturing. Unlike gold, silver's volatility is compounded by its dual role as both an investment and an industrial commodity, creating unique momentum for investors.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Defensive Positioning

The weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. With real interest rates near zero, investors are prioritizing assets that preserve purchasing power. The World Bank projects gold prices to remain elevated through 2026, supported by central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty.

For equities, the rise in precious metals signals a shift in portfolio strategies. While stocks remain essential for long-term growth, their role as a sole defensive asset is diminishing. Gold and silver mining companies have seen profitability surge as metal prices climb, but industries reliant on these metals-such as electronics and jewelry-face margin compression. This duality underscores the need for balanced exposure.

Strategic Implications for Investors

Adding precious metals to portfolios offers a hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical instability. Gold's historical role as a store of value complements equities, while silver's industrial demand introduces growth potential. However, investors must account for silver's higher volatility compared to gold's stability.

Central bank policies will remain a key driver. As institutions continue to de-dollarize reserves, gold's role as a strategic asset is likely to expand. For individual investors, this suggests a long-term allocation to precious metals, particularly in portfolios seeking to mitigate tail risks.

Conclusion

Precious metals have emerged as critical components of defensive positioning in a volatile global market. Their outperformance against equities and currencies, coupled with structural demand from central banks, highlights their strategic value. While equities retain their appeal for growth, the macroeconomic tailwinds-ranging from inflation to geopolitical uncertainty-make a compelling case for integrating gold and silver into diversified portfolios. As the world navigates an uncertain economic landscape, these age-old assets are proving their relevance once again.