El caso de los ETF de cannabis en una era postreclasificación

The reclassification of cannabis from a Schedule I to a Schedule III controlled substance under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act represents a seismic shift in regulatory dynamics, with profound implications for strategic asset allocation. As of late 2025, the Trump administration's anticipated executive order to reclassify cannabis has ignited a surge in investor optimism, particularly for Cannabis ETFs. This regulatory tailwind, coupled with evolving state-level policies and market trends, presents a compelling case for rethinking exposure to the sector.

Regulatory Tailwinds: A Catalyst for Industry Transformation

The reclassification of cannabis to Schedule III would align it with substances like ketamine and anabolic steroids, signaling a reduced federal risk profile and unlocking critical operational and financial benefits. According to a Bloomberg report, this shift could eliminate the IRS's Section 280E, which currently prohibits cannabis businesses from deducting standard business expenses, thereby improving their financial viability. Additionally, access to banking services, a longstanding barrier, would expand, enabling companies to operate with greater transparency and efficiency. While the move does not fully legalize cannabis federally, it would pave the way for pharmaceutical applications and reduce criminal penalties, fostering a more stable environment for investment.

Cannabis ETFs: A Resurgence Amid Regulatory Optimism

The anticipated regulatory changes have already catalyzed a rebound in Cannabis ETFs. Data from the first quarter of 2025 reveals that ETFs such as the Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED) surged by 120.2%, while the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) and Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) recorded gains of 25.7% and 27.8%, respectively. This resurgence reflects investor confidence in the sector's potential to capitalize on reduced regulatory friction. As CNBC reported, the sector's performance has been further bolstered by the Trump administration's endorsement of cannabis's medical and economic potential, including proposals for Medicare coverage of CBD.

Strategic Asset Allocation: Navigating a Fragmented Landscape

Strategic allocation to Cannabis ETFs requires a nuanced approach, balancing regulatory optimism with structural challenges. A key framework involves diversifying exposure across cannabis-related businesses and ancillary services, such as compliance technology and banking solutions, which are less sensitive to federal policy shifts according to CBH Insights. For instance, ETFs like MSOS have adopted strategies emphasizing multi-state operators (MSOs) and vertically integrated firms, which demonstrate operational resilience amid market volatility as noted by AdvisorShares.

State-level developments also play a critical role. Virginia's Democratic governor election and Minnesota's anticipated adult-use market, for example, create opportunities for early capital deployment into retail infrastructure and market share capture according to Chicago Atlantic. Investors should prioritize ETFs with geographic diversification and a focus on states with robust regulatory frameworks, mitigating risks associated with patchwork state laws.

Risk Management: Mitigating Uncertainty in a Volatile Sector

Despite the regulatory tailwinds, the cannabis sector remains fraught with risks. Federal prohibition, though easing, persists, and legislative delays such as the stalled SAFE Banking Act introduce operational uncertainties. To address this, asset allocators must adopt proactive risk management strategies. These include monitoring legislative developments, such as the PREPARE Act, which aims to provide federal protections for cannabis businesses, and prioritizing companies with strong capital discipline and gross margins.

Moreover, diversification into non-plant-touching segments can reduce exposure to regulatory and supply-side volatility. As noted by the Chicago Atlantic, the global cannabinoids market is projected to grow at a 22.3% CAGR through 2033, driven by expanding medical and consumer applications. ETFs that capture this diversification trend may offer more stable returns.

Conclusion: A Strategic Imperative in a Shifting Regulatory Era

The reclassification of cannabis marks a pivotal moment for the sector, transforming it from a speculative niche into a more institutional-grade asset class. For investors, the key lies in aligning strategic allocations with regulatory tailwinds while mitigating residual risks. Cannabis ETFs, with their diversified exposure and adaptability to market shifts, provide a vehicle to navigate this transition. As the industry evolves, those who adopt disciplined, compliance-focused strategies will be best positioned to capitalize on the opportunities ahead.