Carvana Slips 0.21% to $364.59 Amid Technical Resistance at $370

Carvana (CVNA) declined 0.21% in the most recent trading session, closing at $364.59 after fluctuating between $359.38 and $367.08 on moderate volume. This analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to evaluate the stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal indecision. The September 16 candle is a small-bodied doji closing near the session’s midpoint, following a spinning top on September 15. This cluster near $365 suggests consolidation after the rally from early September’s $350 low. Resistance is evident at $370–$372, where multiple August and September highs stalled advances, while support converges around $355–$360, aligning with the September 11 swing low and 50-day MA.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($353) slopes upward beneath the price, signaling near-term bullish bias. However, the 100-day MA ($315) and 200-day MA ($257) show the longer-term trend remains strongly positive. The current price hovering near the 50-day MA without decisive breaks indicates near-term equilibrium. A sustained hold above the 50-day MA would reinforce bullish control, while a breach could trigger a test of $340.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a bearish crossover below the signal line, with histogram bars extending negatively, indicating fading upward momentum. KDJ shows the K-line (44) crossing below the D-line (52), entering neutral territory after recent overbought conditions (>80 on September 12). Both oscillators align in signaling near-term weakness, though neither yet confirms severe oversold conditions that might precede a reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Price trades near the upper band ($369), having retested it on September 12 and 15. Band width contraction suggests reduced volatility, often preceding a significant move. A failure to breach the upper band, coupled with narrowing bands, may foreshadow a pullback toward the middle band ($350) or lower band ($331). The bands’ slight upward tilt still favors bullish consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume peaked on July 31 (10.8M shares) during the 17% surge to $390, validating that breakout. However, subsequent rallies, including the September bounce from $350, occurred on declining volume, questioning sustainability. The recent down days (September 10–11) saw elevated volume, confirming distribution near resistance. This divergence suggests weakening bullish conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (54) resides neutrally after retreating from overbought levels (>70 on September 12). While no immediate overbought or oversold signal exists, the RSI’s failure to exceed 60 during recent highs (versus July’s peak at 80) creates negative divergence, implying weakening upward thrust. This warrants caution despite the lack of extreme readings.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March 2024 low ($151) and July 2025 high ($413), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($353) and 38.2% ($315). Recent consolidation above the 23.6% level ($353) signals resilience, treating it as dynamic support. A breakdown here would expose the 38.2% zone ($315), while holding above $353 maintains the structure for potential highs retests.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence supports the $353–$355 zone, combining the 50-day MA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, and the September 11 swing low. A breach could accelerate selling. Notable divergence exists between price’s September recovery attempt and weakening momentum (MACD, RSI) and volume, suggesting bullish exhaustion. Conversely, alignment of Bollinger Band compression, neutral RSI, and KDJ exiting overbought territory may support a coiled-spring scenario. Probabilistically, the confluence of waning momentum signals and volume degradation near resistance tilts near-term risk slightly downward absent a decisive close above $370.