Carvana Leads Consumer Discretionary Surge in 2025 Despite Analyst Downside Warning

Carvana Co. (CVNA) has outperformed the Consumer Discretionary sector with a 69.9% year-to-date gain. Analysts set a one-year price target average of $319.34, indicating a potential downside of 7.44% from the current stock price. GuruFocus estimates a significant downside of 83.68% based on the GF Value. Investors should carefully consider these insights when deciding whether to invest in CVNA.

Title: Carvana Co. (CVNA) Outperforms Sector with 69.9% YTD Gain

Carvana Co. (CVNA), an online used car retailer, has demonstrated exceptional performance within the Consumer Discretionary sector, registering a remarkable 69.9% year-to-date (YTD) gain. This impressive growth sets Carvana apart in a year marked by headwinds such as rising interest rates and evolving consumer behavior. Analysts have set a one-year price target average of $319.34, indicating a potential downside of 7.44% from the current stock price of $345.00. GuruFocus estimates a significant downside of 83.68% based on the GF Value, highlighting potential risks investors should consider.

Analyst Forecasts

According to insights from 19 analysts, Carvana Co. (CVNA) has an average one-year price target of $319.34, with a range from $440.00 to $148.00. This average target implies a downside of 7.44% from the current stock price. The consensus recommendation among 21 brokerage firms positions Carvana with an average rating of 2.2, suggesting an "Outperform" status [1].

Valuation Metrics

GuruFocus estimates the GF Value for Carvana Co. (CVNA) to be $56.30 in one year, signaling a potential downside of 83.68% from the current market price of $345.00. The GF Value is a comprehensive estimate reflecting the stock's fair value based on historical trading multiples, past business performance, and future business expectations [1].

Market Performance

Carvana (CVNA) closed at $345.92 in the latest trading session, marking a -3.19% move from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.07%. Over the last month, Carvana's shares have seen an increase of 5.12%, surpassing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 1.87% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.94% [2].

Upcoming Earnings

Investors will closely monitor Carvana's earnings performance, scheduled for release on July 30, 2025. The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.09, showcasing a 678.57% upward movement from the corresponding quarter of the prior year. For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $4.99 per share and a revenue of $18.08 billion, indicating changes of +213.84% and +32.23%, respectively, from the former year [2].

Institutional Investor Activity

Bank of New York Mellon Corp cut its stake in Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) by 8.3% in the 1st quarter, according to the company's most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The fund owned 438,823 shares of the company's stock after selling 39,665 shares during the quarter. Other institutional investors have also modified their holdings, with Transce3nd LLC buying a new position in Carvana during the fourth quarter valued at $48,000, and Versant Capital Management Inc growing its holdings in Carvana by 39.4% during the first quarter [5].

Conclusion

Carvana Co. (CVNA) has shown strong performance within the Consumer Discretionary sector, but investors should weigh the potential risks indicated by various analyst estimates and GuruFocus metrics. The company's innovative approach and market positioning present opportunities for growth, but the significant downside estimates suggest caution. Careful consideration of these insights is essential for making informed investment decisions.

References

[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2972884/carvana-cvna-leads-consumer-discretionary-surge-in-2025
[2] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/carvana-cvna-declines-more-market-some-information-investors
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-cvna-rated-market-outperform-061912927.html
[4] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2964686/cvna-citigroup-raises-price-target-for-carvana-cvna-stock-news?mobile=true
[5] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-bank-of-new-york-mellon-corp-lowers-position-in-carvana-co-nysecvna-2025-07-11/