Carvana Gains 1.35% Amid Volatile Trading As Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals

Carvana (CVNA) closed at $293.98 on June 17, 2025, registering a 1.35% gain amid volatile trading within a $288.50–$295.47 range. This price action occurs within a broader technical context characterized by conflicting signals across key indicators, warranting a multi-faceted assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal bearish momentum with three consecutive long red candles from June 11–13 ($340.32 to $297.03), establishing $342.65 as a resistance ceiling. The June 17 session formed a small green candle with a higher low ($288.50), suggesting tentative support near $288–$290. This level now serves as immediate support, while the $317–$337 zone (June 12 rejection) constitutes formidable resistance. A confirmed close above $300 would signal potential bullish reversal commitment.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($283) crossed bearishly below the 100-day MA ($295) in mid-June, indicating deteriorating intermediate momentum. However, both remain above the ascending 200-day MA ($215), preserving the long-term uptrend. Current price hovers near the 100-day MA, with sustained trading below this level potentially accelerating downside pressure toward the 200-day support. The 50/100-day death cross warrants caution despite the primary bull trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bearish crossover with histogram bars extending below the signal line, reflecting strengthening negative momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows conflict: The %K line (29) and %D (32) are near oversold territory, yet both maintain downward slopes. This dynamic divergence suggests oversold conditions lack conviction, with sellers still dominating near-term price action. Neither indicator currently signals a reliable reversal catalyst.
Bollinger Bands
The bands contracted sharply in early June (12% width reduction) before expanding during the subsequent selloff, confirming elevated volatility. Price currently trades below the 20-day moving average ($305) and tests the lower Bollinger band ($285), typically signaling oversold conditions. However, consecutive closes beneath the lower band (observed June 16–17) imply persistent bearish pressure that may delay recovery. Band expansion supports extended volatility cycles.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 6.6M shares during the June 13 breakdown (-6.87%), validating bearish conviction. The June 17 rebound occurred on below-average volume (3.4M shares), undermining bullish sustainability. Notably, the June 11 peak ($342.65) formed on 20% below-average volume, signaling weak participation at highs—a bearish divergence that foreshadowed the correction. Volume profiles consistently confirm downward moves.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (37) resides in neutral territory after exiting oversold conditions. It registered a low of 28 during the June 16 selloff, but oversold readings failed to produce meaningful rebounds—evidence of bearish momentum overwhelming typical reversal signals. While RSI no longer indicates extreme conditions, its bounce from oversold territory lacks vigor, suggesting limited upside momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the rally from the April 3 swing low ($177.22) to the June 11 peak ($342.65) yields significant retracement zones. The 38.2% level ($278) aligns with the June 16 low ($283.67) and the 200-day moving average. Below this, the 50% retracement ($260) and 61.8% level ($242) represent critical downside targets. Confluence exists at $278–$285 (38.2% Fib + volume gap + 200-day MA), making this a pivotal support cluster.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Converging bearish signals emerge near $315 resistance (candlestick rejection, moving averages, Bollinger mid-band). Support confluence at $278–$285 combines Fibonacci, moving averages, and Bollinger lower band. Divergences are notable: RSI and KDJ imply oversold conditions, yet MACD and volume-confirmed breakdowns suggest unresolved downward pressure. This conflict between momentum oscillators and trend-following indicators reflects market indecision, advocating for confirmation from price action. A decisive close above $307 (50-day MA) would signal strength, while failure at $285 could trigger an extended decline toward $260.