Carvana Extends Losses 3.52% Amid Waning Bullish Momentum Near $394 Resistance

Carvana (CVNA) recently declined 3.26%, extending losses to 3.52% over two consecutive sessions, closing at $378.10. The session saw a trading range between $376.38 and $394.45, establishing key short-term reference levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a volatile pattern: a strong bullish candle on September 19 (+3.63%, close $391.89) was followed by two bearish sessions, culminating in a decisive down candle on September 23 (-3.26%). This sequence suggests waning bullish momentum near the $394.45 resistance, which now acts as a critical overhead barrier. Immediate support crystallizes at $376.38, aligning with the September 18 low. A breach below this level could trigger accelerated selling, while a recovery above $394.45 would signal resumed bullish control.
Moving Average Theory
Despite recent declines, Carvana maintains a bullish long-term structure. The current price ($378.10) trades above calculated key moving averages, with the 50-day MA near $360, the 100-day MA around $330, and the 200-day MA near $260. This configuration indicates sustained upward momentum. However, the short-term pullback may test the 50-day MA if selling persists. The stacked alignment (price > 50 > 100 > 200) confirms the primary uptrend remains intact.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Momentum oscillators reflect neutral-to-bearish bias consolidation. The MACD likely shows a narrowing histogram near the zero line, indicating reduced directional conviction. KDJ’s recent trajectory suggests potential bearish crossover risk in overbought territory. While no strong reversal signal is evident, weakening momentum aligns with the two-day decline. Failure to regain upside traction may foreshadow a KDJ bearish crossover.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is notable, with the September 23 range ($376.38–$394.45) marking the widest daily spread in recent weeks. This volatility spike amid declining prices signals potential distribution. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band edge ($376.38), implying oversold conditions short-term. Sustained trading below $378 may validate bearish momentum, while a rebound toward $394 could indicate band expansion continuation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns offer validation signals. The September 19 surge (+3.63%) occurred on high volume (5.38 million shares), confirming bullish conviction. However, the subsequent two-day decline saw mixed participation: moderate volume on September 22 (1.70 million shares) intensified on September 23 (3.16 million shares). This distribution-like pattern—higher volume on down days—raises sustainability concerns for the prior advance. Breakouts lacking volume confirmation remain vulnerable.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI calculates at approximately 59.5, within neutral territory (30–70). This reading shows moderation from recent highs but avoids oversold conditions. While divergences are absent, the neutral RSI aligns with near-term consolidation. Traders should note the indicator’s lagging nature; values below 50 may reinforce bearish momentum, whereas holding mid-range supports range-bound activity.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant uptrend—swing low $172.70 (September 24, 2024) to swing high $394.45 (September 19, 2025)—reveals critical thresholds. The 23.6% retracement anchors near $342.50, followed by the 38.2% level at $310. Current price action resides near the 0% retracement level ($394.45), emphasizing bullish trend strength. The $342.50 support represents a major confluence area, aligning with the 50-day MA. This zone is a logical downside target if selling accelerates.
Confluence and Divergence
Notable confluence exists at $342–$350, where Fibonacci support (23.6%), the 50-day MA, and historical consolidation zones converge. This area offers robust technical significance. No major divergences appear among momentum oscillators, though volume patterns contrast with price direction—high-volume selling signals distribution pressure. The convergence of Bollinger Band expansion and RSI neutrality suggests short-term directional uncertainty.