Carvana (CVNA) experimentó un aumento del 4.2% en el índice S&P 500, debido al optimismo hacia la inclusión y el crecimiento impulsado por la inteligencia artificial.

Summary
• Carvana (CVNA) trades at $461.27, up 4.22% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $485.33
• S&P 500 inclusion and Morgan Stanley’s $750 bull case fuel momentum
• Tapasya Fund highlights CVNA as a top 2025 performer amid AI and onshoring trends

Carvana’s explosive 4.22% rally on January 9, 2026, reflects a confluence of catalysts: S&P 500 inclusion, AI-driven operational upgrades, and strategic expansion into new-car dealerships. With a 129.24% gain over the past year and a 25.21% surge in 90 days, the stock’s trajectory underscores its role as a bellwether for e-commerce disruption in the automotive sector. Retail and institutional sentiment align with Morgan Stanley’s $750 price target, signaling a pivotal moment for CVNA’s valuation trajectory.

S&P 500 Inclusion and AI-Driven Expansion Fuel CVNA's Rally
Carvana’s 4.22% intraday surge is directly tied to its recent inclusion in the S&P 500, which has amplified institutional demand and retail investor enthusiasm. The stock’s momentum is further bolstered by Morgan Stanley’s upgraded bull case to $750, citing the company’s acquisition of four new-car dealerships and AI integration for operational efficiency. Tapasya Fund’s fourth-quarter letter also highlights CVNA’s strategic positioning in the AI and onshoring trends, despite its 12.87% one-month decline. Analysts at Simply Wall St argue that CVNA’s fair value of $419.45 suggests a 7.5% overvaluation, but the stock’s 128.82% total shareholder return over the past year indicates strong conviction in its long-term growth narrative.

Vehicles & Parts Sector Gains Momentum as Carvana Outpaces Peers
The Vehicles & Parts sector, led by Carmax (KMX) with a 0.13% intraday gain, shows mixed momentum. Carvana’s 4.22% rally far outpaces KMX’s muted performance, reflecting CVNA’s unique positioning in e-commerce and AI-driven logistics. While KMX focuses on traditional retail, Carvana’s expansion into new-car dealerships and AI-powered inventory management positions it to capture a broader addressable market. The sector’s overall volatility, however, remains tied to used-car demand and supply-chain bottlenecks, which could pressure margins if not offset by technological gains.

Options and ETFs Highlight High-Leverage Opportunities Amid Volatile Rally
• 200-day MA: $334.42 (below current price), RSI: 48.86 (neutral), MACD: 11.74 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $476.55, Middle $443.08, Lower $409.61 (price near upper band)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $446.00–$448.43, 200D $342.46–$348.67

Carvana’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $476.55 and support at $446.00. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long CVNA ETF (CVNX) and YieldMax CVNA Option Income Strategy ETF (CVNY) offer leveraged exposure, with CVNX up 8.87% and CVNY up 2.72% intraday. For options, CVNA20260116C470 and CVNA20260116C472.5 stand out: both have leverage ratios above 50%, implied volatility between 47%–49%, and high liquidity (turnover $236,000–$233,808).

• CVNA20260116C470: Call, strike $470, exp. 1/16/26, IV 47.30%, leverage 52.63%, delta 0.397, theta -1.688, gamma 0.01197, turnover $236,063. High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected price $484.33, payoff $14.33).
• CVNA20260116C472.5: Call, strike $472.5, exp. 1/16/26, IV 49.01%, leverage 55.48%, delta 0.374, theta -1.647, gamma 0.01135, turnover $233,808. Strong gamma and liquidity support directional bets on a breakout above $472.50.

Aggressive bulls should consider CVNA20260116C470 into a test of $476.55 resistance, while CVNA20260116C472.5 offers a leveraged play on a sustained rally. Both contracts benefit from high gamma, ensuring sensitivity to price acceleration.

Backtest Carvana Stock Performance
The backtest of CVNA's performance after a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 49.31%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.00%, and the 30-Day win rate is 66.47%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 30.81% over 30 days, suggesting that CVNA can deliver significant gains even after the initial 4% surge.

Bullish Momentum Intact—Position for Next-Level Growth as CVNA Targets $750
Carvana’s 4.22% rally on January 9, 2026, signals sustained momentum driven by S&P 500 inclusion, AI integration, and strategic expansion. With Morgan Stanley’s $750 bull case and a 52-week high of $485.33 in sight, the stock remains a high-conviction play for investors targeting e-commerce disruption in the automotive sector. Sector leader Carmax (KMX) lags with a 0.13% gain, underscoring CVNA’s unique growth trajectory. Watch for a breakout above $476.55 (Bollinger upper band) or a breakdown below $446.00 (30D support) to confirm the next directional move. Aggressive bulls should prioritize CVNA20260116C470 for leveraged exposure to a potential $750 target.