Carrier Global Soared 4.1%—Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• CARR surges 4.1% to $79.56, breaking above its 52-week high of $83.32
• Unusual put options trading volume hits 15,000 contracts at the $75 strike for Dec 2025
• Institutional buying by Delaney Dennis R and Meeder Asset Management drives 236% position expansion
Carrier Global’s 4.1% intraday rally has ignited speculation about the sustainability of its surge. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and a surge in long-dated put options activity, the market is pricing in both bullish momentum and tail-risk hedging. The Trump Administration’s recent Asian trade deals and CARR’s Q1 guidance reaffirmation have created a volatile cocktail for traders.

Tariff Deals and Institutional Buying Ignite Short-Term Volatility
The Trump Administration’s finalized trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines have recalibrated expectations for Carrier Global’s global operations. These deals, coupled with the company’s reaffirmed $23 billion sales guidance and $2.5–$2.6 billion free cash flow projections, have spurred aggressive institutional accumulation. Delaney Dennis R’s 17.4% stake increase and Meeder Asset Management’s 236% position expansion signal strategic positioning. Meanwhile, the surge in $75 strike put options (15,000 contracts traded) reflects a dual thesis: income generation via short-puts and a hedge against potential overvaluation. The stock’s 4.1% move is a direct response to macroeconomic tailwinds and institutional conviction.

Building Products Sector Mixed as Honeywell Gains 1.5%
The Building Products sector exhibits divergent momentum, with Honeywell (HON) rising 1.5% on improved HVAC demand. However, CARR’s 4.1% surge outpaces peers, driven by unique catalysts like trade deal optimism and speculative options flows. Owens Corning faces scrutiny over tariff risks, while CARR’s HVAC and refrigeration segments benefit from stable demand. This divergence highlights CARR’s decoupling from sector averages due to its exposure to tariff mitigation and institutional flows.

High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Gamma Positions
• 200-day MA: $70.39 (below current price)
• RSI: 61.99 (neutral)
• MACD: 1.24 (bullish) vs. Signal Line: 1.27 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $78.12, Middle at $75.09, Lower at $72.05
• Key support/resistance: $72.35–$72.49 (30D) / $66.94–$67.48 (200D)
Carrier Global’s technicals present a classic breakout setup, with the stock trading at 41.4x forward earnings (vs. 11.84x P/E) and 1.31x beta above the S&P 500. The 3.49% short interest and 13.93% payout ratio suggest a risk-reward profile favoring aggressive longs. Two contracts stand out for directional exposure:

CARR20250815C80 (Call, $80 strike, 8/15 exp):
• Implied Volatility: 34.67% (moderate)
• LVR: 27.58% (high)
• Delta: 0.525 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.109 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0559 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 120,190 (liquid)
Payoff at 5% upside ($83.54): $3.54/share potential gain. This contract balances leverage with moderate time decay, ideal for holding through mid-August.

CARR20250815C82.5 (Call, $82.5 strike, 8/15 exp):
• IV: 35.95% (moderate)
• LVR: 41.01% (high)
• Delta: 0.393 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.097 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0521 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 3,080 (liquid)
Payoff at 5% upside ($83.54): $1.04/share potential gain. The CARR20250815C82.5 offers explosive leverage for aggressive bulls, though delta exposure is lower. If $80.55 holds, this contract could capitalize on a retest of the 52-week high.

Aggressive bulls may consider CARR20250815C82.5 into a bounce above $80.55.

Backtest Carrier Global Stock Performance
The 4% intraday surge in the CARR ETF has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that after a 4% intraday change, the 3-day win rate is 52.02%, the 10-day win rate is 56.06%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.16%. This indicates that the ETF tends to experience positive returns in the immediate aftermath of such a surge, with the maximum return observed being 5.81% over 30 days.

Position for the Next Leg Up—Watch $80.55 Breakdown
The confluence of institutional buying, analyst upgrades, and technical momentum creates a compelling case for further gains. With 91% institutional ownership and a 1.31 beta profile, CARR is primed to react sharply to macroeconomic shifts. Honeywell’s 1.5% rise underscores sector strength, but CARR’s unique catalysts suggest it could outperform. Traders should monitor the $80.55 intraday high as a critical resistance level—break above this triggers a retest of the 52-week high at $83.32. Given the 3.49% short interest and 13.93% payout ratio, a sustained rally above $80.55 would validate the bullish thesis. Aggressive positioners should consider the CARR20250815C82.5 for leveraged exposure, while conservative investors may wait for a pullback to $76.20 (key support).