Carrier Global Outlook - A Weak Technical Profile Despite Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Carrier Global (CARR) is under pressure with a recent price drop of -5.41%, and technical indicators are overwhelmingly bearish.

News Highlights

Recent headlines include construction and infrastructure-related news, such as Quanex Building Products declaring a $0.08/share quarterly dividend and TSMC evaluating an advanced chip plant in the UAE. While not directly related to CARR, these moves highlight a broader industry focus on infrastructure and manufacturing. Meanwhile, Zara’s founder acquiring a Barcelona building for $283 million points to a global shift in real estate investment. However, these developments are unlikely to significantly affect Carrier Global's short-term performance.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided, with three major institutions—Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and RBC Capital—offering "Underperform" or similar ratings in the past 20 days. The simple average rating is 4.33, while the performance-weighted rating is just 1.71, reflecting weak historical accuracy. The price has declined, and these ratings are broadly aligned with that downward trend.

On the fundamentals, the internal diagnostic score is 5.45, indicating moderate health. Key financial metrics include:

• Gross profit margin: 28.36% (internal score: 2)
• ROE: 4.22% (internal score: 2)
• Current ratio: 1.17 (internal score: 2)
• Rate of return on total assets: 4.04% (internal score: 3)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 93.74% (internal score: 1)

While some metrics are decent, the overall fundamental picture is mixed at best.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are positive, with block inflow ratio at 50.46%, and extra-large inflow at 50.19%. However, retail activity is split: small investor inflow is at 49.93%, while the trend for that segment is negative. This divergence between retail and institutional investors suggests uncertainty in the market.

The overall inflow ratio is 50.27%, and the fund-flow score is 7.76, which is considered "good" for a stock with such a weak technical setup.

Key Technical Signals

Despite a weak overall trend, a few recent indicators stand out:

• Long Lower Shadow on 2025-09-10: This is a strong bullish signal with an internal diagnostic score of 8.1, indicating a potential reversal pattern.
• WR Oversold on 2025-09-02 and 2025-09-03: Shows a neutral rise with a score of 3.33. While the stock is technically oversold, the signal's historical return is weak.
• MACD Death Cross on 2025-09-03 and 2025-09-11: A neutral bias signal, with a score of 1.48. This reinforces bearish momentum.
• MACD Golden Cross on 2025-09-05: Also neutral bias, with a score of 1.93. A contradictory signal in a bearish context.

Technically, the stock is overly bearish, with three bearish indicators vs. one bullish. The overall technical score is just 3.71, with the model advising to avoid the stock for now.

Conclusion

Carrier Global faces a challenging environment. Despite a few positive flow and candlestick signals, the overall technical and analyst outlook is bearish. With an internal technical score of 3.71 and analyst consensus leaning toward underperformance, investors are better off waiting for a clearer trend or a potential breakout. Consider holding off on new positions for now and watching upcoming technical developments or earnings reports for a clearer direction.