Carrier Global Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Carrier Global (CARR) has seen a sharp decline of -7.53% recently, with technical indicators pointing to a weak trend and a bearish outlook. The stock is currently not recommended for entry given the signals from our internal diagnostic scores.

2. News Highlights

While recent headlines are not directly tied to Carrier Global, a few developments across industries could indirectly influence market sentiment:

• Zara's $283 million office purchase in Barcelona highlights ongoing investment in real estate, potentially affecting logistics and transportation sectors.
• Telcos building NVIDIA-powered AI infrastructure underscores global investment in AI, which could impact tech and infrastructure companies but is less relevant to CARR.
• TSMC evaluating a chip plant in the UAE is a macro-level story that might affect broader market risk appetite but has limited direct bearing on Carrier Global’s near-term performance.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a simple average rating of 3.75 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.32. This shows a disparity between analysts’ ratings and historical performance, as the stock has declined in recent weeks. The price trend (-7.53%) appears to align with the weighted expectations, suggesting downward momentum is being priced in.

Fundamental factors show a mixed picture, with key values including:

• Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio: 100.15 (internal score: 3.00)
• Return on Assets (ROA): 1.64% (internal score: 2.00)
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 28.94% (internal score: 2.00)
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 10.35% (internal score: 2.00)
• Shareholders’ Equity Growth Rate: 4.44% (internal score: 0.00)
• Operating Cash Flow / Total Liabilities: 4.82% (internal score: 2.00)

Though some margins are decent, the low ROA and weak equity growth raise concerns about underlying business performance.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Money flows suggest divided opinions between large and small investors. While large and extra-large capital inflows lean positive, small and medium inflows show negative trends. The overall inflow ratio is 50.21%, which is close to neutral but favors the bearish side. This could signal that institutional investors are hedging or locking in gains, while retail investors remain cautious.

5. Key Technical Signals

Our internal diagnostic scores paint a clearly bearish picture for Carrier Global in the short term:

• MACD Death Cross: Score of 1.48 — a strong bearish signal indicating a downward trend has taken hold.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score of 2.30 — reinforcing the bearish bias with a chart pattern suggesting a reversal after an up-move.
• WR Oversold: Score of 3.33 — while it hints at a potential bounce, it's neutral and has not produced a strong turnaround in recent history.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score of 2.74 — typically bullish, but in the current context, it may be a false positive due to weak overall momentum.

Recent chart patterns on 2025-09-05 (MACD Golden Cross) and 2025-09-03 (WR Oversold and MACD Death Cross) highlight the conflicting signals, but bearish indicators clearly dominate with 4 versus 0 bullish signals. This suggests a weak trend with high risk of further decline.

6. Conclusion

With a technical score of 2.46 and a clear bearish bias from multiple indicators, the internal model advises avoiding entry into Carrier Global at this time. Analysts are also split, with low-performing institutions outnumbering high-quality ones. While some fundamental factors look relatively stable, the recent price action and mixed market sentiment tilt the balance toward caution.

Actionable takeaway: Investors should wait for a clearer sign of stabilization or a strong pullback before considering a position in CARR. For now, it's best to monitor technical signals and earnings releases for a potential turning point.