Carnival Stock Surges 6.88% to $25.695 as Technical Indicators Signal Strong Bullish Momentum

Candlestick Theory
Carnival's price action reveals key patterns in the recent data. The four consecutive bullish candles (June 23–24, 2025) culminated in a 6.88% surge on June 24, closing near the session high ($25.695) after testing resistance at $26.525. This sequence suggests strong buying momentum, though the extended rally heightens near-term exhaustion risks. Prior resistance near $24.10 (June 23 high) now acts as immediate support, while the $26.50–$26.60 zone (June 24 high and February 19 peak) presents a critical overhead barrier. The May 12th bullish engulfing candle near $20.19 established a foundational support level, corroborated by subsequent bounces.
Moving Average Theory
Carnival trades significantly above its primary moving averages, signaling a robust uptrend. The 50-day MA (approx. $22.80) and 100-day MA ($21.50) curve upward beneath the current price ($25.695), with the 200-day MA ($19.80) confirming the long-term bullish bias. The June 13th dip briefly breached the 50-day MA before a swift recovery, reinforcing this dynamic support. The consistent alignment of shorter averages above longer ones (Golden Cross pattern) sustains bullish sentiment, though a retest of the 50-day MA could emerge if profit-taking accelerates.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive following the June rally, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line – a bullish confirmation. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K and %D lines crossing above 80, indicating overbought territory but also reflecting strong upward momentum. While elevated KDJ readings imply potential consolidation, no bearish divergence is yet evident. The MACD's upward trajectory aligns with the price breakout, though traders should monitor for weakening momentum if histamines contract.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded notably in June, with price surging from the lower band (near $22.41 on June 13) to pierce the upper band ($26.21 on June 24). This band expansion validates the breakout’s strength. However, the current price hovering near the upper band suggests near-term overextension. The bands’ width has increased from May’s contraction (indicating low volatility), supporting the case for continued directional movement. A consolidation phase could see price retract toward the 20-period midline ($23.80).
Volume-Price Relationship
Surges in volume consistently validate Carnival’s bullish phases. The June 24 breakout occurred on 66M shares – the highest volume since April 9 – confirming institutional participation. Earlier, the May 12th 9.61% rally on 43M shares signaled accumulation. Conversely, pullbacks like the June 17th 2.35% decline saw reduced volume (25M shares), indicating limited conviction behind selloffs. The current uptrend’s volume profile remains supportive, though diminishing volume on further gains would raise sustainability concerns.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI now reads approximately 67, approaching overbought territory (>70) but retaining momentum headroom. Prior tests of the 70 threshold (e.g., April 9 at RSI 73) preceded brief consolidations but no major reversals. Crucially, RSI has formed higher lows since May, aligning with the ascending price structure. While not yet signaling exhaustion, proximity to 70 warrants vigilance for bearish divergence or failed swing highs.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the decline from the March 31 high ($28.72) to the May 9 low ($20.19) reveals key technical thresholds. The 61.8% retracement ($25.20) was decisively breached on June 24, transforming it into support. The 78.6% level ($26.40) now converges with horizontal resistance near $26.50 (February highs). A successful close above $26.50 would open a path to the 100% extension at $28.72. The 38.2% retracement ($23.30) serves as major support should a deeper retracement materialize.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists at $25.20–$25.30 (Fibonacci 61.8%, 50-day MA, and June 16 closing price), solidifying it as critical support. The $26.50 zone (resistance from Bollinger Upper Band, Fibonacci 78.6%, and prior peaks) represents the next tactical hurdle. While momentum oscillators (MACD, KDJ) align with the bullish trend, RSI’s approach to overbought territory without bearish divergence suggests consolidation may precede further upside. Volume confirms breakout legitimacy, and moving averages provide a structural safety net below price. However, the absence of significant bearish divergences tempers reversal probabilities near-term. Carnival’s trajectory likely hinges on its ability to sustain above $25.20 while challenging $26.50, with volatility-adjusted pullbacks offering potential entry points.