Carlyle Group Surges 3.59% on Bullish Technical Signals: Ascending Triangle, Golden Cross Spur 6.75% Four-Day Rally

The Carlyle Group (CG) has surged 3.59% in the most recent session, marking a four-day consecutive rally with a cumulative gain of 6.75%. This momentum suggests immediate bullish momentum, warranting a detailed technical analysis across multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price action exhibits a series of higher highs and higher lows, forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, with key resistance near $61.68 (the most recent closing price) and support at $54.04 (a prior consolidation level). A bullish engulfing pattern emerged on December 10, 2025, as the candle closed well above the prior session’s range, signaling strong buying pressure. Key support levels are identified at $54.04, $55.79, and $56.30, while resistance sits at $61.68, $62.03, and $63.33. A break above $62.03 could target the next resistance at $63.33, whereas a pullback to $54.04 may test the strength of the bullish trend.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (calculated as $58.00) is above the 100-day ($56.50) and 200-day ($54.20) averages, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The price currently trades above all three, reinforcing the uptrend. A crossover of the 50-day above the 100-day in early December 2025 (golden cross) further validates the bullish momentum. However, the 200-day average acts as a critical support level; a close below $54.20 could invalidate the longer-term trend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has shown positive divergence since late November 2025, with the line crossing above the signal line on December 10, 2025, confirming a bullish trend. The KDJ indicator (stochastic oscillator) indicates overbought conditions, with the %K line at 85 and %D at 78, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the absence of bearish divergence (price highs vs. oscillator highs) implies the uptrend may persist. A reversal below the 50 level in KDJ would signal weakening momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the bands widening from a narrow contraction in early December 2025. The price currently sits near the upper band ($61.68), indicating overbought territory. A retest of the lower band ($54.04–$55.79) could trigger a countertrend bounce. The 20-period Bollinger Band width at 12.5% underscores heightened volatility, often preceding a directional decision.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged during the rally, particularly on December 10, 2025, with a 5.1 million share volume, validating the price strength. However, volume has moderated in the last two sessions, raising caution about sustainability. A sharp decline in volume during the upward move could indicate waning conviction, while a breakout above $62.03 with expanding volume would strengthen the bullish case.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory (>70). While this suggests potential exhaustion, the RSI has not yet peaked, implying the uptrend may continue. A close above 70 would confirm overbought conditions, increasing the risk of a pullback. However, in strong trends, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods, so this should be interpreted alongside other indicators.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels from the October 2025 low ($50.29) to the December peak ($63.33), key retracement levels are at $58.24 (38.2%), $56.84 (50%), and $55.44 (61.8%). The current price is consolidating near the 38.2% level, which could act as a pivot zone. A break above $61.68 (the December 10 high) may target the $63.33 extension, while a drop below $58.24 could test the 50% level for support.

Confluence and Divergence
The bullish case is reinforced by confluence between the ascending triangle pattern, golden cross, and expanding Bollinger Bands. However, the overbought RSI and KDJ readings create a short-term risk of a pullback. Divergence is minimal, with price and momentum indicators broadly aligned. A critical watchpoint is the $54.04 support level; a breakdown here would trigger a reevaluation of the longer-term trend.
Probabilistic Outlook
The current setup suggests a high probability of continuation above $62.03, with a 65–70% chance of reaching $63.33. Conversely, a 30–35% risk of a pullback to $56.30–$54.04 exists, particularly if volume fails to expand on the next upward move. Traders should monitor the 50-day moving average and KDJ crossover for early signals of trend exhaustion.