Carlyle Group Jumps 4.04% On Bullish Reversal Signals Amid Elevated Volume

Technical Analysis: The Carlyle Group (CG)
The Carlyle Group (CG) shares closed at $58.40 on October 13, 2025, posting a 4.04% gain on elevated volume of 2.27 million shares. This strong session warrants comprehensive technical assessment to gauge potential sustainability.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action features a notable bullish engulfing pattern formed by the October 10th bearish candle (wide range -5.03%) followed by the current session's robust bullish candle. This reversal pattern at the $56.13 low suggests potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Key near-term support now resides at $56.00 (October 10th low), while immediate resistance is established at $61.99 (October 8th high), with a more significant ceiling near $64.50 (September-October swing high).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approx. $61.00) remains below the 100-day average (approx. $63.50), reflecting persistent intermediate-term bearish momentum. However, the closing price holding above the 200-day moving average (approx. $55.80) signals the primary uptrend remains structurally intact. A bullish crossover of the 50-day above the 100-day may be necessary to confirm trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows tentative signs of bullish convergence near oversold territory, though remains below its signal line. The KDJ indicator exited oversold conditions (K=15 on Oct 10) with a bullish crossover (K crossing above D), supporting the short-term reversal thesis. These oscillators collectively suggest downward momentum may be waning but require further confirmation for a decisive bullish signal.
Bollinger Bands
Price recently touched the lower Bollinger Band ($56.11 on Oct 10) before rebounding sharply towards the middle band (~$60.38). Bandwidth contracted significantly during the September-October decline, indicating reduced volatility. The breakout from this compression suggests increasing directional momentum. Sustained trade above the middle band could signal bullish continuation potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Significant volume accompanied the late September breakdown below $64.00 (over 6M shares on Sept 19) and the October 10th capitulation (3.2M shares), confirming bearish conviction. The latest 4.04% advance occurred on substantial but not exceptional volume (2.27M shares), warranting caution. Follow-through buying with volume expansion above 2.8M shares would strengthen the reversal validity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI (approx. 47) rebounded sharply from near-oversold levels (31 on Oct 10), reflecting improving momentum. While still below the key 50 level signaling neutral territory, the recovery trajectory aligns with the price bounce. The RSI warns against immediate overbought risks but shows potential for further upside room before reaching the overbought threshold (>70).
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing high near $69.85 (August) and the recent swing low at $56.11 (Oct 10) reveals critical retracement zones. The 38.2% level ($61.66) and 50% level ($63.00) present immediate upside targets. Confluence exists at $61.66, aligning with the 50-day moving average and prior resistance, making it a crucial test for bulls. The current price remains below the 23.6% level ($59.72), suggesting near-term upside potential before encountering significant barriers.
Confluence & Divergence Insights
Notable confluence exists at the $56.00-$56.50 zone, combining the recent swing low, Bollinger Band support, and oversold KDJ/MACD readings. This area successfully halted the decline. However, a divergence emerged in late September: price made lower highs while RSI and MACD made higher highs, warning of weakening downside momentum ahead of the October bounce. While short-term indicators support a rebound, resistance near $61.66-$62.00 (Fibonacci + Moving Average cluster) poses a significant hurdle requiring volume-backed breakout confirmation to invalidate the prevailing intermediate downtrend. Market structure still favors caution until decisive clearance above $64.50.