Carlyle Group Jumps 3.11% As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

The Carlyle Group (CG) advanced 3.11% in the most recent session, closing at $65.61 after trading between $63.61 and $65.86. This analysis examines key technical dynamics using the provided historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks show a bullish reversal pattern emerging after a period of consolidation. The September 10 session formed a strong white candle closing near its high, following a hammer pattern on September 8 ($63.18 low), suggesting accumulation near the $63–$63.50 support zone. Immediate resistance is evident at $65.77–$65.86 (September 5 and 10 highs), with a decisive close above this level potentially triggering further upside. Key support resides at $62.50–$62.70, where multiple swing lows and the 50-day moving average converge.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (near $61.80) and 100-day moving average (approximately $58.50) both trend upward, maintaining their positions above the rising 200-day moving average (around $50.80). This alignment confirms a sustained long-term bullish trend. The current price holding above all three averages reinforces positive momentum, though proximity to the 50-day MA warrants monitoring for potential mean reversion if the $63 support fails.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows waning bearish momentum, with the fast line attempting to cross above the signal line—a tentative bullish development. KDJ oscillators (particularly the %K line) recently exited oversold territory (below 20) after the September 8 low, now rising toward neutral. While no overt divergence exists, the KDJ’s rapid ascent toward overbought territory (above 80) suggests short-term exuberance that may precede consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted sharply in early September, indicating reduced volatility and a potential energy buildup. The price has since pushed into the upper band (65.86), signaling strength but also near-term overextension. A close above the upper band would confirm bullish momentum, while a rejection could see retracement toward the middle band (20-SMA, near $63.50). Band expansion appears imminent.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout on September 10 was accompanied by 2.87 million shares traded—markedly higher than the prior session’s 1.59 million—validating the bullish move. However, volume remains below the year’s peak (e.g., 7.38 million on November 11, 2024), indicating moderate conviction. Downswings (e.g., September 5 and September 3) saw elevated volume, suggesting persistent selling pressure near resistance. Sustained advances require volume expansion beyond 3 million shares.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~62) is neutral but trending upward, reflecting accelerating momentum. While not overbought (above 70), proximity to this threshold may limit near-term upside. Divergence is absent, as RSI confirms recent higher price highs. Traders should note that RSI values between 60–70 often precede consolidation during extended trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $36.65 (September 11, 2024) and high of $65.86 (September 10, 2025), key retracement levels emerge. The 23.6% level ($59.30) aligns with the August 26 swing low, serving as immediate support. The 38.2% level ($55.25) coincides with the July 16 trough and the 100-day moving average—a high-convidence confluence zone. A pullback into this region would likely attract buyers absent broader trend deterioration.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence is notable at $62.50–$63.50, where the 50-day moving average, horizontal support, and Bollinger middle band converge—a pivotal defensive zone for bulls. Bearish divergence is absent among oscillators, though KDJ’s proximity to overbought territory against Bollinger Band expansion creates friction for uninterrupted upside. Volume validation during the $65.77–$65.86 breakout remains critical; failure to hold gains above this resistance may trigger profit-taking toward the Fibonacci 23.6% ($59.30) or 38.2% ($55.25) support cluster.