Carlyle Group Extends Slide With 4.76% Drop As Bearish Signals Intensify

The Carlyle Group (CG) closed at $64.00 on 2025-09-24, down 4.76%, marking its fourth consecutive daily decline and bringing the cumulative loss to 7.71% over this period. Trading volume registered at 2.49 million shares, below the prior session's 3.14 million, following an exceptionally high 10.86 million shares on 2025-09-19, which validated the initial bearish momentum. We analyze CG’s technical posture across multiple methodologies below.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions exhibit a bearish pattern with four consecutive down days. The most recent candle shows a long red body (open approximately at $67.20, close at $64.00) and a wick extending to $67.47, signaling persistent selling pressure after brief intraday recoveries. Key support is identified at $63.20 (2025-09-24 low), which aligns with the August 2025 consolidation low of $63.33. Resistance is evident at $69.80–69.85 (2025-09-18 and 2025-09-19 highs). Sustained closure below the $65.00 psychological threshold may accelerate downward momentum.
Moving Average Theory
Calculated MAs reveal a complex trend structure:
- The 200-day MA (~$55) anchors a long-term uptrend, with the current price trading 16.4% above this level.
- The 100-day MA (~$60) reflects a bullish medium-term bias, as the price holds 6.7% above.
- Conversely, the 50-day MA (~$65.50) now caps the price after a recent breakdown, indicating emerging short-term weakness.
The current price at $64.00 resides between the 50-day and 100-day MAs, suggesting trend indecision. A "death cross" (50-day crossing below 100-day) would intensify bearish momentum if it materializes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has shifted negative since mid-September, signaling increasing bearish momentum as the fast line (EMA12) crosses below the slow line (EMA26). This divergence from price peaks in late August warns of weakening upward potential. The KDJ oscillator displays an oversold condition, with the %K line near 16.3, below the 20 threshold. While a technical rebound may loom given extreme readings, continued %K values below 20 could prolong downward pressure before any reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have expanded noticeably during the September selloff, with bandwidth increasing by 15% over the past week, reflecting elevated volatility. Price currently probes the lower band at $63.50, historically a potential reversal zone. However, prolonged hugging of the lower band without recovery may signal institutional distribution. Band contraction from current levels could precede a technical bounce if volatility normalizes.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns show mixed signals. The decisive breakdown on 2025-09-19 saw record volume (10.86M shares), confirming bearish conviction. Subsequent down days witnessed reduced volume (~1.62–3.14M), potentially suggesting waning selling pressure. The lack of volume support during recent rebounds, however, undermines bullish reversals. Sustainably rising volume above the 50-day average (~2.80M) is required to validate any meaningful recovery.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI calculates to 47, within neutral territory (30–70) and down sharply from 58 the prior week. While avoiding oversold readings (<30), the momentum gauge has deteriorated markedly during the four-day selloff. RSI’s divergence from price (higher highs in late August vs. lower highs in RSI) previously warned of this pullback. Current neutrality warrants monitoring for oversold thresholds if the decline extends below $63.20.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the $63.33 (2025-08-26 low)–$69.85 (2025-09-19 high) rally yields critical retracement levels:
- 61.8%: $65.74
- 78.6%: $64.63
- 100%: $63.33
CG has breached the 78.6% retracement at $64.63 and tested the full 100% level at $63.20. Holding this zone is critical; failure may target the 1.272% extension at $62.60. The depth of this retracement (~10% from peak) approaches oversold territory, potentially limiting downside.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at the $63.20–63.30 support area, reinforced by the Fibonacci 100% retracement, Bollinger Band lower limit, and KDJ’s oversold signal. This creates a high-probability technical floor for near-term stabilization. Notable divergence exists between the neutral RSI (47) and KDJ’s deeply oversold reading (%K=16.3), reflecting conflicting momentum signals that may resolve with either a sharp rebound or extended consolidation.
Conclusion
The Carlyle Group exhibits short-term technical damage following a breakdown below key moving averages, though it maintains a longer-term bullish structure. Oversold signals from KDJ and Bollinger Bands near the $63.20–63.30 support cluster suggest potential for a relief rally, but such recovery requires volume expansion and reconquest of the 50-day MA ($65.50). Failure to hold $63.20 could trigger acceleration toward the August low of $60.46.