CareDx (CDNA) Shares Drop 1.22% to 2025 Low on Regulatory Delays, Cash Burn

CareDx (CDNA) shares fell 1.22% on Thursday, hitting a new low since September 2025, with an intraday drop of 1.35%. The decline reflects persistent investor concerns over the company’s regulatory, financial, and strategic challenges.

Regulatory uncertainty surrounding CareDx’s AlloSure Heart and Kidney tests remains a key drag. Delays in securing favorable coverage policies for surveillance testing have intensified skepticism about the tests’ adoption potential. Analysts highlight that the company’s narrow product portfolio leaves it vulnerable to competitive pressures and reimbursement risks, particularly as rivals like Natera gain traction.

Financial pressures are compounding the stock’s struggles. Despite 18% quarterly revenue growth to $84.7 million, CareDx’s annualized cash burn exceeds $100 million, outpacing revenue expansion and raising doubts about long-term sustainability. A recent $50 million share buyback program has failed to reassure investors, with short-interest activity suggesting ongoing bearish sentiment.

Market sentiment has been further eroded by analyst downgrades. Following the 2025 earnings report, price targets were cut significantly, with BTIG reducing its target by 40%. The stock’s price-to-sales ratio of 2.3x lags industry peers, underscoring pessimism about growth prospects. Analysts project 15% revenue growth for 2025—far below the sector average—highlighting the company’s structural challenges.

Options market activity underscores the stock’s volatility. Aggressive shorting and bearish options strategies, such as the CDNA20250815P12.5 put option, indicate traders are positioning for further declines. Technical indicators, including a bearish MACD and broken 30-day moving average, reinforce near-term downside risks. Institutional investors are closely watching the $12.50 level as a critical psychological threshold.

While a 28% rebound in 30 days offers a glimmer of short-term optimism, the 12-month decline of 51% underscores structural weaknesses. For CareDx to regain traction, analysts emphasize the need for regulatory clarity, cost discipline, and evidence of scalable growth. Until then, the stock remains a high-risk proposition in a sector where fundamentals are increasingly scrutinized.