Cardlytics (CDLX) Surges 19% on Intraday Rally: What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Cardlytics (CDLX) surges 19.12% to $2.8351, hitting an intraday high of $2.97
• Turnover spikes to 8.84 million shares, 17.57% of its average daily volume
• 52-week range of $0.85–$5.25 highlights volatility amid a dynamic short-term rebound

Cardlytics (CDLX) has ignited a dramatic intraday rally, surging nearly 19% to $2.8351 as of 5:56 PM EDT. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 2024 earnings slump and recent legal challenges has drawn attention to its technical setup and options activity. With a 52-week low of $0.85 and a 52-week high of $5.25, the stock’s current trajectory suggests a potential short-term reversal, though its fundamentals remain under pressure. Traders are now scrutinizing whether this surge is a fleeting bounce or a catalyst for a broader recovery.

Q2 Earnings Catalyst and Short-Term Options Volatility
Cardlytics’ explosive 19% intraday gain coincides with its Q2 2025 earnings release on August 6, which highlighted a $63.25 million revenue decline and a $9.28 million net loss. While the results were bleak, the stock’s sharp rebound suggests short-term traders are capitalizing on oversold conditions and options expiration dynamics. The August 17 expiration date (2025-10-17) has seen heavy call option activity, with the $3 strike price call (CDLX20251017C3) trading at a 66.67% price change ratio. This aligns with a broader pattern of speculative positioning ahead of key inflection points, including the company’s repayment of $46.1 million in convertible notes and its recent MarTech Breakthrough Awards recognition.

Advertising Agencies Sector Mixed as The Trade Desk (TTD) Trails
The Advertising Agencies sector, led by The Trade Desk (TTD), has shown mixed performance, with TTD down 0.19% despite Cardlytics’ surge. While TTD’s decline reflects broader macroeconomic headwinds, CDLX’s rebound underscores sector-specific catalysts such as short-term earnings-driven volatility and options-driven liquidity. The sector’s average P/E ratio remains negative, but CDLX’s 19% intraday gain highlights divergent investor sentiment between speculative plays and more stable peers.

Options and ETF Plays for CDLX’s Volatile Rebound
• MACD: 0.295 (above signal line 0.140), RSI: 69.62 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: Price at 2.797 (upper band), 200D MA: 2.207 (below price)
• Key Levels: Support at $1.77–$1.84 (200D MA range), resistance at $3.00 (psychological level)
• Short-Term Outlook: Bullish continuation if $3.00 is cleared, with RSI and MACD suggesting momentum remains intact

Top Options Contracts:
• CDLX20251017C3 (Call, $3 strike, 2025-10-17):
- IV Ratio: 203.74% (elevated volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 5.67% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.556 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0148 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: 294,860 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.145 per share (max(0, 2.9785 - 3.00))
- Why: High liquidity and IV make this ideal for a short-term bullish bet ahead of expiration.
• CDLX20251017P3 (Put, $3 strike, 2025-10-17):
- IV Ratio: 201.03% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 4.36% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.445 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0089 (moderate decay)
- Turnover: 6,783 (adequate liquidity)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.00 (max(0, 3.00 - 2.9785))
- Why: Acts as a hedge if the rally stalls, with high IV offering downside protection.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider CDLX20251017C3 into a test of $3.00, while cautious traders should monitor the 200D MA at $2.207 for a potential mean reversion setup.

Backtest Cardlytics Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test of Cardlytics (CDLX.O) after every trading day in which the stock jumped by 19 % or more from the prior close, covering 1 Jan 2022 through 26 Sep 2025.Key findings (30-day holding window, 20 events):• Average 1-day follow-through: +1.06 %, but by day-10 the mean return turns negative (-9.3 %). • Win-rate never exceeds 50 % after the 2-day mark and drops to 30–40 % beyond day-10. • The pattern is statistically insignificant across all horizons; the surge tends to fade rather than trend. Parameter notes 1. Price series: close-to-close returns were used (industry standard for event studies). 2. Surge threshold: ≥ 19 % daily %-change, matching your request. 3. Analysis window: default 30 trading days post-event—long enough to detect mean-reversion or momentum. 4. No risk-control filters applied; raw price performance is shown.You can explore the full interactive report in the panel on the right.Feel free to ask if you’d like deeper slices (e.g., different holding horizons, adding stop-loss/take-profit rules, or expanding the threshold criteria).

Cardlytics’ Volatility: A Short-Term Play or a Cautionary Tale?
Cardlytics’ 19% intraday surge reflects a mix of speculative fervor and technical momentum, but its fundamentals—negative P/E, declining revenue, and legal challenges—remain a drag. The $3.00 level is critical: a break above could validate the rally, while a pullback to the 200D MA at $2.207 would signal a resumption of the downtrend. Traders should also watch The Trade Desk (TTD), its sector leader, which fell 0.19% today, for broader market sentiment. Act now: For a high-risk, high-reward play, target CDLX20251017C3 if $3.00 is cleared; otherwise, brace for a retest of key support levels.