Cardano/Yen Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Session with Mixed Momentum and Volume Signals

• ADAJPY traded in a 127.3–130.3 range with a 127.36 close after sharp intra-day volatility.
• Momentum waned in the final hours with RSI trending lower and volume declining.
• A bullish breakout attempt failed near 130.3, with price retracting toward 127.07, indicating unresolved bear pressure.
• Volume spiked during the midday rally to 129.8 but faded into the close, suggesting weak conviction.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in late hours, pointing to a potential shift in volatility.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 127.5 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 127.36 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of 130.31 and a low of 126.66 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 777,561.9, and notional turnover (calculated using volume × close price) amounted to approximately 100,668,933.4 JPY.

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY displayed a volatile 24-hour candle with a bearish close. A strong midday rally to 130.31 was met with selling pressure, resulting in a bearish reversal pattern near that level. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the final candle of the day, with open at 127.8 and close at 127.36, indicating a potential short-term trend shift. Key support levels are forming around 127.07–126.8, while resistance appears at 128.2 and 129.0–129.5. A doji formed near 127.34, signaling indecision and potential consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in the morning, with price breaking above the 20-period line before being rejected at the 50-period. The 200-period MA acted as a strong bearish trendline near 127.5. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 127.8, the 100-period at 127.6, and the 200-period at 127.4, suggesting a bearish alignment of key MAs, with price now below all three.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in late afternoon, with the histogram shrinking as momentum waned. RSI reached 72 during the midday rally, indicating overbought conditions, before trending back toward the 50-level by the close. A bearish divergence formed between the RSI and price as the former fell below 50 while the latter continued to test support near 127.07.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the midday rally, pushing the upper band to 130.31. As the price retreated, the bands contracted in the final hours, suggesting a period of consolidation. At close, price was positioned near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked during the midday rally to 130.31 with a 43,838.3-volume candle, but sharply declined in the final hours. Turnover mirrored volume with the highest activity observed between 12:00 and 15:00 ET. A bearish divergence emerged between price and volume: as price fell from 129.8 to 127.36, volume dropped from ~44k to ~1k, indicating weak follow-through selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent high of 130.31 and low of 126.66 defined a 3.65 JPY swing. Price retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level (127.7) before breaking below to close at 127.36. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a larger bearish trend, with the 61.8% level now at 127.1 and the 38.2% at 127.6—price is now consolidating near the 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach using a 20-period and 50-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI divergence and volume confirmation. Triggers would activate on a close below the 20-period EMA with RSI < 30 and declining volume. Stops would be placed at the 15-minute high of the entry candle, with targets set at the nearest Fibonacci level and the 15-minute EMA. This setup aligns with the observed overbought reversal and bearish divergence seen on the 24-hour chart, making it a viable approach for short-term bearish positioning.