Cardano/Yen Market Overview

• ADAJPY traded lower overnight but surged sharply post-midday ET, closing near a 24-hour high.
• Volatility expanded significantly with Bollinger Bands widening, indicating a breakout potential.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 96.5–96.84 level, suggesting short-term reversal optimism.
• RSI reached overbought territory, while volume spiked during the upward leg, confirming bullish momentum.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 97.4 and 98.4 suggest likely near-term resistance and continuation potential.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 99.5 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 103.76 on October 12 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 103.2 and a low of 94.61. The pair experienced heightened volatility and a sharp reversal late in the session. Total volume traded was 502,401.6 and total notional turnover was 49,928,580.1, driven by a large surge in buying pressure during the final 3 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed a strong reversal pattern starting from the 96.5–96.84 level, where a bullish engulfing candle formed. This pattern is typically a reliable signal for a short-term reversal, especially with strong volume confirmation. Later in the session, the price tested the 98.0–98.6 range, forming a consolidation pattern before breaking higher. The 103.76 close aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the October 11 low to the October 12 high, indicating potential for continued bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over in a bullish crossover (golden cross) during the 04:45–05:00 ET window. This reinforced the upward trend. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA above both the 100- and 200-period MAs, confirming a stronger long-term bullish bias. The price remained above key moving averages for most of the session, indicating a structurally strong trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence during the late morning to early afternoon ET, coinciding with the sharp price rise. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 70) in the final 4 hours of the session, indicating a potential pullback is due if buyers lose control. However, the overbought RSI did not trigger a reversal, suggesting strong conviction in the bullish move.

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction phase from 19:30–22:00 ET, followed by a strong expansion phase as the price broke higher. The price closed near the upper band, indicating strong momentum and potential for further upward movement.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred between 15:00–16:00 ET, with 239,971.7 contracts traded and a large notional turnover of 103.76 Yen, confirming a breakout move. Notably, during the consolidation phase, volume was relatively low, indicating no immediate selling pressure. The price-volume correlation was strong, with high volume supporting price gains, especially in the final 3 hours of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 98.46–100.44 acted as a dynamic support/resistance zone. The price broke above the 100.44 level with confirmation from volume and momentum. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement at 103.76 was confirmed as resistance and potentially a continuation target. A break above this level could signal a deeper move to 106.0 on a bullish extension.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for ADAJPY could involve leveraging the bullish engulfing pattern and golden crossover on the 15-minute chart, triggered at 04:45–05:00 ET. Entering a long position at the close of the engulfing candle with a stop-loss placed just below 96.52 and a take-profit at 103.76 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level) could provide a favorable risk-reward ratio. Given the strong confirmation from RSI and MACD, and the large volume during the breakout, this setup appears to align with key technical indicators, making it suitable for backtesting over similar timeframes and volatility profiles.