Cardano/Yen Market Overview

• ADAJPY rose 9.3% over 24 hours, surging to 125.60 from 114.76, driven by sharp buying after 18:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 121.92, confirming a reversal from a 15-minute downtrend.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a 21.4-point range (121.92–125.60) suggesting renewed risk-on positioning.
• RSI crossed above 60, hinting at potential overbought conditions, but momentum remains intact.
• Notional turnover surged to ¥3.08B amid the rally, confirming price action strength.

ADAJPY opened at 122.83 at 12:00 ET–1, surged to a high of 125.60, and closed at 125.04 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume reached 458,129.6, with a notional turnover of ¥57.79M across 96 15-minute candles. The pair exhibited strong bullish momentum, with a key breakout from a 15-minute descending wedge.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed a sharp reversal pattern, with a bearish breakdown attempt failing at 121.92, followed by a strong rally to 125.60. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 18:00 ET as the pair moved from 123.3 to 123.79 on a single 15-minute candle. A key support at 121.92 held, with a subsequent 60-point rebound. The price may test resistance at 125.60–125.90 next, where prior overhead supply is evident.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA early in the morning, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-EMA is currently at 124.30, and the 20-EMA is at 124.75. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 122.10, and the 200-day MA is at 121.60. The price is currently above both, suggesting a medium-term bullish structure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive at 09:00 ET and remained above the signal line for most of the session, suggesting sustained upward momentum. The histogram grew wider as the price surged after 18:00 ET. The RSI climbed to 63 at the close, indicating moderate overbought conditions but not extreme. A pullback into the 60–50 RSI range would be a natural next step.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon, with the Bollinger Band width widening from 1.6% to 4.5% after 18:00 ET. The price closed near the upper band at 125.04, having traded as high as 125.60. This suggests the market is pricing in a higher volatility environment, with the risk of a pullback into the mid-band at 124.30–124.40.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 18:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute bar (2604.3) coinciding with a 124.96 close. Notional turnover exceeded ¥3.08M during the rally phase, aligning with the price breakout. Divergences were minimal, with price and turnover showing strong alignment. The high volume on the breakout suggests strong conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing low at 121.92 and high at 125.60, key retracement levels are at 124.24 (38.2%), 123.88 (50%), and 123.52 (61.8%). The current price of 125.04 is near the 38.2% retracement level, which could act as support if a pullback occurs. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of a larger downtrend from 130.00 to 119.88 is at 125.24, currently overlapping with key 15-minute support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy focuses on a breakout-based approach, triggering long positions when the price closes above the upper Bollinger Band and volume exceeds the 75th percentile of the 24-hour average. The strategy also includes a stop-loss at the 20-EMA and a trailing take-profit at 1.5x ATR. Based on today’s data, the conditions were met after 18:00 ET, and the trade would have captured the 125.60 high. The strategy appears to work best during high-volume, low-liquidity expansion phases, such as those observed in the late afternoon and early evening.