Cardano/Yen Market Overview

• ADAJPY opened at 130.98 and closed at 130.98, with a high of 132.97 and a low of 128.25 over 24 hours.
• A strong bearish reversal is seen at 132.75 after a 15-minute 132.97 high, followed by a sharp decline to 130.22.
• Volume surged to 309,906.3 during the 12:45 ET candle, the largest in the dataset, aligning with the peak and drop.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 132.97, while MACD turned negative, signaling bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the spike, confirming heightened volatility.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 130.98 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 130.98 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 132.97 and a low of 128.25. Total volume amounted to 1,186,889.5, and total turnover stood at 155,131,013.6 Yen, reflecting significant liquidity and volatility.

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 132.75 following the high of 132.97, signaling a potential reversal. A key support area emerged at 130.22 and 129.05, while resistance is seen at 131.3 and 131.85. A doji candle at 131.1 formed around 01:45 ET, hinting at indecision. A bullish rejection at 129.59-129.61 suggests minor near-term support could hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 50-period MA but above the 20-period MA, indicating mixed signals. On a daily time frame, if a 50/100/200 MA setup is applied, the pair is currently trading below all three, reinforcing a bearish bias. Price may test the 50 MA at 130.66–130.70 in the next 24 hours as a possible short-term pivot.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after the 132.97 high, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels (above 70) at the peak and then dropped rapidly to neutral territory, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish move. RSI remains in the mid-50s as of 12:00 ET, indicating a balanced but bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 12:45 ET candle, as price broke the upper band and then fell back inside, a classic sign of volatility expansion. Price is currently resting near the lower band at 129.05, suggesting potential for a rebound. A test of the mid-band (130.3) is expected in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 12:45 ET candle at 309,906.3, the highest of the dataset, aligning with the sharp reversal after the 132.97 high. Turnover confirmed this move, with a peak at 128.25. Divergence is seen between price and volume in the 05:30–06:00 ET timeframe, where price rose but volume declined, indicating weakening bullish momentum. This could lead to further consolidation or a bearish break below 129.05.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 128.25 to 132.97, the 38.2% level aligns with 130.52 and the 61.8% level at 129.69. Price currently rests near 129.05, which is slightly below the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential bounce area. A close above 130.52 could indicate a bullish reversal, while a break below 129.69 would strengthen the bearish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 130.52 Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed below 129.69. A target could be set at the 61.8% retracement level of 129.69 to 132.97 or 131.85 if price shows strength. Conversely, a short position could be triggered on a break below 129.69 with a stop above 130.52. Given the high volatility seen in the 15-minute timeframe, this strategy would be best tested on a 1-hour or 4-hour chart to reduce noise and optimize signal clarity.