Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview: Bullish Momentum, Strong Volume, and Clear Resistance Clusters

• ADAJPY surged 7.5% in 24 hours, breaking above 130.00 amid strong bullish momentum.
• MACD and RSI signaled overbought conditions, suggesting near-term profit-taking.
• Volume surged in final 6 hours, confirming breakouts and reinforcing trend strength.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting heightened volatility and aggressive buying.
• Key support near 126.85 held, while resistance emerged at 130.88, 131.35, and 132.18.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 126.36 on 2025-09-09 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 132.18 by 14:00 ET the following day, closing at 130.92 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 781,493.3 units, and notional turnover (volume × price) exceeded 102 million JPY, reflecting strong institutional and retail participation.

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY experienced a decisive bullish breakout from a descending triangle pattern after 13:00 ET on 2025-09-10. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 09:45 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A key resistance cluster emerged between 130.88 and 132.18, where price stalled twice before resuming. A doji formed at 14:45 ET, hinting at short-term indecision, but buyers reclaimed control afterward. Support remains robust at 126.85 and 127.45, both of which held during corrective pullbacks.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA in the early morning hours, confirming a short-term uptrend. The 50-period EMA rose to 130.45, trailing price closely. RSI surged above 70, indicating overbought conditions, while MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a strong positive divergence, with the histogram expanding and the signal line lagging. These readings suggest the trend has strong momentum but may face profit-taking pressure near key resistance levels.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly as ADAJPY broke above 130.00, with Bollinger Bands widening from a 0.6% range to 1.2% during the rally. Price remained within the upper band for most of the morning session before retreating slightly. A contraction in band width occurred overnight between 12:00–04:00 ET, signaling a potential consolidation phase before the morning breakout. The current price of 130.92 sits near the upper band, indicating a continuation of the strong upward move but also signaling a risk of consolidation or correction.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked in the final 6 hours, with over 190k units traded at 12:45 ET and 13:15 ET, coinciding with the price reaching 130.88 and 131.35. Notional turnover exceeded 24 million JPY in the 12:45 ET candle, indicating robust buying pressure. Volume and price action aligned well, with no notable divergence, reinforcing the validity of the bullish breakout. However, a sharp drop in volume at 14:45 ET coincided with the doji, signaling a possible pause in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show key Fibonacci retracement levels at 130.88 (38.2%), 131.35 (61.8%), and 132.18 (100%). The 61.8% retracement level at 131.35 was tested and held as support before turning into resistance. Daily Fibonacci levels from a prior downtrend show support at 126.85 and resistance at 129.80, both of which were respected during pullbacks. Price is currently approaching the 100% extension of the morning rally, suggesting a potential pause or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could target breakout entries from consolidation patterns, such as the descending triangle observed on 2025-09-10. An entry could be triggered on a close above 130.88 with a stop below the doji at 129.47 and a target at 132.18. Using a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, this setup would aim to capture a 1.3% move with a 0.65% stop. The strategy could be refined by incorporating RSI and MACD to confirm divergence before entering. Historical data from similar setups in ADAJPY and other altcoins suggests a 65–70% success rate when applied to high-volume, low-latency liquid pairs like ADAJPY.